There are always narratives in fantasy football. Some good, some bad. And the noise around these narratives can get pretty loud after a breakout game or when a player is going through a slump. But what can we believe, and in whom can we really trust?
Below are statements about five players currently delivering different levels of production. I will provide a verdict -- believe it or don't believe it -- on each statement and explain why I feel that way.
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We have three quarterbacks in here: two currently producing high-end numbers but with very different starts to their seasons, and another who is looking to get on track. We'll also discuss a big-play wide receiver who put on an absolute show in Week 5 and an elite volume receiver who hasn't really popped since Week 2.
Here's my version of "believe it or not," fantasy football style.
Brock Purdy has top-five QB upside Verdict: Believe it
Purdy survived back-to-back matchups with the Denver and Seattle defenses in Weeks 4 and 5, scoring 17.9 fantasy PPG, with multiple touchdown throws in each. That's a positive to pass those tests (as more are looming later in the schedule). And after five weeks, Purdy sits at 23.3 fantasy PPG, second only to Josh Allen's 28.6.
Purdy has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season, with three or more in two of them. The 49ers are throwing the ball when they are in scoring position, as Purdy's eight red zone touchdown passes are tied for fifth most in the league. Purdy provides a boost in production due to his ability to create as a runner. He's averaging 5.1 carries and has at least 29 rushing yards in four of five games played.
We have to remember that Purdy is also an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense, throwing with timing and finding the open voids in coverage. Dropback, play-action and movement concepts. He can layer the ball (with touch and pace) to create explosives.
Yes, Purdy will get the Vikings and Seahawks (again) in Weeks 11 and 12, plus the Chiefs are waiting in Week 16 (during the fantasy playoffs). But in this system, with a very favorable stretch coming up (WSH, @ATL, BYE, LV, @DAL), Purdy is primed to produce big-time totals. He has been the one of the best quarterbacks I've watched on tape this season.