Editor's note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2026, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.
Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 versions of this yearly report provide overwhelming evidence.
There are 151 names in those pieces and, in 137 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 90.7%. Last season, the piece correctly identified 20 of 21 TD dippers, with Zach Charbonnet (9 to 12) the lone exception. The 21 players averaged 11.7 TDs in 2024, were projected for 8.2 TDs in 2025 and ended up averaging 7.6 TDs.
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This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.
During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 263 instances in which a player totaled at least 10 touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those 263, a whopping 213 (81.0%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season and the average change was a decrease of 4.8. Of the 64 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 61 (95.3%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.0). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014) and Kyren Williams (15 in 2023, 16 in 2024).
Every player who scored 14-plus TDs in 2024 found the end zone less often in 2025: Jahmyr Gibbs (20 to 18), James Cook (18 to 14), Derrick Henry (18 to 16), Ja'Marr Chase (17 to 8), Williams (16 to 13), Josh Jacobs (16 to 14), Bijan Robinson (15 to 11), Saquon Barkley (15 to 9) and Jalen Hurts (14 to 8).