Editor's Note: As you get ready for fantasy football 2026, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.
Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2012 to 2024 seasons, there were 178 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 178, 118 (66.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 48 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 39 (81.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 16 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 15 (93.7%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WR Danny Amendola (2018-19) was the lone exception.
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Last season, 23 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, including the following players who were held under three scores: Rashid Shaheed (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Luther Burden III (2), Justin Jefferson (2), Jerry Jeudy (2), Xavier Worthy (1), Cade Otton (1) and Evan Engram (1).
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 21 instances in which a back failed to reach six touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 21, 18 (or 85.7%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The average second-year touchdown total was 9.3!
In 2024, two RBs fell short of six TDs on 200-plus touches and went on to rack up 200 touches in 2025: Tony Pollard (5 to 5) and Rico Dowdle (5 to 7).
Last season, six RBs were held under six TDs on 200-plus touches: Breece Hall (5), Woody Marks (5), Pollard (5), Kenneth Walker III (5), Bucky Irving (4) and Tyrone Tracy Jr. (4).