NBA intel: Seattle expansion update, Towns extension drama, more from preseason
What storylines dominated preseason? Brian Windhorst shares intel on Seattle expansion, extension drama in New York and a potential trade decision in Orlando.
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This is high-stakes negotiation season in the NBA -- for players, teams and the league as a whole.
Let's examine a few key negotiations that are unfolding with the season openers coming into view, starting with the one that has the potential to reshape the entire NBA.
Jump to a section: NBA expansion: Seattle team in danger? Pathways for KAT-Knicks extension saga A Magic move could impact trade season
What is happening with Seattle expansion talks?
NBA commissioner Adam Silver appears to be upping the ante on the leverage game involving the possible future of the Seattle SuperSonics, multiple ownership sources told ESPN.
We say "possible" with care because Silver left owners with the impression that a Seattle expansion team was no longer a lock at last month's board of governors meeting. Silver even reintroduced the idea of Mexico City as a possible destination.
At the meeting, owners were told about at least one Mexico City-based group that has approached NBA expansion partner PJT Partners with a plan about launching a team and developing a new arena district there that apparently has caught the league's attention, several sources said.
Even though the league has announced it is focused on expanding in Las Vegas and Seattle, Silver hasn't guaranteed anything over the past year. Additionally, he has made it clear there is no assurance the league will add two teams at the same time, as it did with expansions in 1988 (Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat), 1989 (Minnesota Timberwolves and Orlando Magic) and 1995 (Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies). There could be a separate timeline for the teams or, possibly, no second team at all.
As of now, two things appear to be hard facts:
Silver is a full-go on expansion to Las Vegas. The league does not seem to be happy with the bids from Seattle -- yet. Editor's Picks Windhorst: Why Cooper Flagg's ascension is starting to feel inevitable Brian Windhorst Which NBA deals will get done? Rookie, veteran extension decisions to watch Bobby Marks What NBA preseason revealed about all 30 teams Ben Golliver 2 Related A decision on a winning bid for Las Vegas is near, perhaps weeks away if not sooner. ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Shams Charania have reported extensively on the three bidding groups and massive prices being floated around for the expansion fee and arena development.
As for Seattle, there are two known bidders, but the group led by Kraken and Climate Pledge Arena owner Samantha Holloway has long been considered the leader. The offers, sources said, are substantially lower than what the bidding war for the Vegas franchise is driving, which could exceed $10 billion. It is Silver's job to raise that price. It could be argued that Silver's No. 1 job on a day-to-day basis is to increase the value of teams. He has shown to be excellent at it, and naturally this is what he's working on diligently.
Breaking away Vegas expansion to get "losing" bidders to look at Seattle, saber-rattling that the league might not add two teams and trying to create leverage by considering other expansion cities such as Mexico City are firmly within this motive.
Let's stop short of the concept that the league could leave Seattle open as a leverage point for other teams trying to get arena deals -- the Portland Trail Blazers being at the top of that list -- because Silver is on the record saying relocation is currently not on the table. But it exists as a plausible, if private, reason the league wouldn't expand to Seattle now.
But it all comes back to the same base mission: Get the bid up.
Going back to Seattle, where the SuperSonics played from 1967 to 2008 before relocating to Oklahoma City, has long been a league wish. Doing a round of expansion and not accessing a desirable market with an established fanbase and arena goes against common sense.
Additionally, the league staying at 31 teams has a few prickly issues. Yes, the NBA was at an odd number of teams between 1980-81 and 2003-04, so there is a precedent for unbalanced conferences. But back then, there was no NBA Cup; a 31-team tournament would require a format overhaul. And despite the proposals from deep-pocketed bidders in Mexico City who might exist, putting a team there is the opposite of "ready-made." That concept's best current use is as a stalking horse.
One more thing ownership sources have pointed out over the past week is the expected $500 million to 600 million expansion fee windfall each team is projected to receive. One team ESPN spoke to is working off a number of $533 million, for example. Forget about that actual number but understand how closely this is being monitored and budgeted. Teams have been making plans for this money for a while, whether it's to pay for their rosters, to upgrade their arenas or to pay down debt. A no on Seattle expansion means hundreds of millions less.
Nothing as big as adding a new team comes without twists and turns -- and we're in one now. The bottom line: Lean toward an eventual return of the Sonics but leave the champagne on ice for now.
What is going on with Karl-Anthony Towns' extension talks?
The New York Knicks' odd decision to informally release a statement that they're pausing contract extension negotiations -- informally because it wasn't in the form of a letter-headed news release -- certainly has added buzz to the preseason.
Making public statements is absolutely not the way team president Leon Rose operates, but it is the way owner James Dolan occasionally operates. Extrapolate who issued that order, especially after extension candidates Towns and Josh Hart continued to make public comments about the process.
The Knicks, read Dolan, want to focus on their title defense as the top five players return from last year and they are earning a combined $192 million this season. That is reasonable, and it seems to be working on some level as Towns' response to the team statement was to express disappointment but say he would focus on the season.
"Owners set the system up so that the players are forced into doing extensions to maximize their value and then the owners get angry when the players who have earned it want an extension," one prominent agent said.
In the wake of it, rival teams believe the Knicks have set themselves up for several scenarios:
Pathway No. 1: The Knicks could withstand Towns picking up his $61 million player option for the 2027-28 season and remain under the second apron hard cap Dolan has mandated, projected to be $236 million. It would likely cost them Hart and Miles McBride, but they could keep their top players in Towns, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.
Towns has shown a willingness to reduce that 2027-28 number to allow the Knicks flexibility -- in return for a large long-term guarantee, of course. Having a player option gives the six-time All-Star a measure of leverage, but the Knicks could simply let him pick it up and not have to radically alter the roster.
Pathway No. 2: If Towns isn't extended, he could opt out and enter free agency. There definitely are teams -- starting with the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers and Atlanta Hawks -- that would probably line up to make big offers. This is what other teams are studying with the Knicks.
New York could pivot to having cap space next year if Towns walks, opening other options. Hart has a $22 million team option, and the Knicks currently hold options on Pacome Dadiet and Tyler Kolek. If Towns walks, the Knicks could clear around $40 million to reformat the team around Brunson before his eventual and rewarding new deal would kick in. This is reason enough for the team to hold off on all business, including an extension for Hart, until they know Towns' plans.
In the end, the Knicks and Towns will likely work something out because that is a championship pairing. Both sides can reasonably posture in the meantime.
Could any other contract impasses lead to an early trade?
Teams are watching Magic guard Anthony Black, who is coming off a breakout year in which he averaged 15.0 points and started 40 games. The Magic have an expensive roster now and going forward, currently in line to pay about $32 million in luxury tax this season, which would be their first year in the tax since 2010. The franchise has paid a total of $39 million in its 37-year history.
So the Magic are squeezed on their books and, after trading four first-round picks for Desmond Bane last year, are short on draft assets. This has led rival teams to watch whether Orlando considers moving on from Black if they can't come to terms on a rookie extension before the Monday deadline.
"We're in a lot of tighter quarters than we've been in years past," Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said at media day. "We believe he's a bright young player in this league who's just going to get better and better, and we'll have continuous conversation with his people up until the deadline, and we're hopeful that we can arrive at something."
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Brandin Podziemski is a comparable player to Black and his five-year, $110 million deal with the Warriors last week has framed his contract talks to a degree, especially because Podziemski and Black share an agent, Bill Duffy. The Magic, sources said, have not yet been willing to offer the same $22 million per year average that Podziemski signed.
The Magic agreed to a five-year, $150.5 million extension with guard Jalen Suggs right at the October deadline in 2024, but he's played just 92 games since.
"I don't think they trade him now even if they don't get a deal," an Eastern Conference executive said of Black. "They are under pressure to win this season because of that payroll, and they need him because of Suggs' injury issues."
Weltman rarely makes trades, especially during the season, and he left open the possibility of letting Black enter restricted free agency next summer.
"We expect Anthony to have a great year," Weltman said. "[Extensions] don't always get done right now. Sometimes they get done later."
