Welcome to ESPN NFL Survivor! The rules are simple: Pick one NFL team each week to win its game. If that team wins (or ties), you advance to the next week. If that team loses, you are out. The catch is that each team can be chosen only once. ESPN's game requires just one team each week, so that will be the focus of this column, though I will touch on other major contests.
For the third time in five weeks, the top-picked team in ESPN Survivor fell. This time, it was the Dallas Cowboys, who were picked by 35% of entries against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since the loss came on Thursday, the concentrated selection on the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals opened up other potential leverage opportunities.
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However, two of the top potential low-future value picks both tied or lost in the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons. Luckily for those who play ESPN Survivor, Commanders backers advanced to Week 6, unlike in Circa Survivor or Splash Sports. Entering Week 6, only 9.7% of entries in ESPN Survivor remain.
The biggest favorites in Week 6 are the Los Angeles Rams. While favorites of at least eight points are a paltry 5-5 outright, the four double-digit favorites this season are 4-0 outright.
In contests that require one pick per week, the Rams are the optimal pick, especially in smaller groups that are unlikely to last all season. However, in large pools, and pools with multi-pick weeks, I prefer to save the Rams for later.
The Rams make a ton of sense as the biggest favorites of the week in their largest projected favorite role all season. However, Los Angeles is also projected to be favored in all but one or two of their remaining games, and as we get deeper into the season, having teams like the Rams available is valuable. That's especially true in Circa and Splash, which require multi-pick weeks, especially with the Rams projecting to be the biggest favorites on Circa's Thanksgiving slate.