Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: find betting value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Also included are fantasy projection creator Mike Clay's top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 6.
From spreads and moneylines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, the top game to bet, favorite defensive props to play and the top predicted TD scorers.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Jump to: Bowen's Game of the Week Solak's plays | Walder's props Clay's TD projections
Bowen's Game of the Week
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5) 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network, Wembley Stadium, London
Trevor Lawrence has 10 touchdown passes this season but will face a tough Texans defense Sunday. Kirby Lee/Imagn Images It's a tough week to pick games. However, we are going to make some plays here, starting with my picks for the Texans and Jaguars in London. Here's how I see Sunday's matchup playing out...
NFL betting
• Latest buzz: Who want to win NFC East? • How sportsbooks are reacting to injuries • Odds for every Week 6 game | First bets • Super Bowl odds: 49ers surpass Rams • Allen the MVP fave, Purdy right behind • Betting home | Super Bowl on ESPN
When the Texans have the ball: Quarterback C.J. Stroud has played really good football over the past two games, coinciding with Nico Collins' return from a hamstring injury. Collins is the difference-maker on in-breakers, isolation throws and red zone targets. During that two-game stretch, versus Dallas and Tennessee, Stroud completed 72.3% of his throws and had three touchdown passes. The Texans also traded for Marvin Harrison Jr. this past week, so let's see how many snaps he gets Sunday and how he is deployed in the route tree versus a Jaguars defense that has given up 266.2 passing yards per game (third most).