Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 5 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores
An all-encompassing look at the matchups to exploit or avoid and lineup locks in fantasy, as well as projected scores for all NFL games.
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Welcome to The Playbook for Week 5, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Buccaneers and Cowboys.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the analysis of each team's strength of schedule for the remainder of the season. All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.
DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday's main slate, which is why there are no values for games scheduled on days other than Sunday. (Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, Bucky Irving, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens
Fantasy scoop: Jalon Daniels made his first NFL start last week against Green Bay, and it did not go particularly well for the Tampa Bay offense. Daniels completed 19 out of 27 passes for 148 yards, one TD and two INTs. Irving was able to produce 61 yards on 16 carries, but he failed to find the end zone and wasn't targeted. No Buccaneers pass catcher cleared 37 receiving yards, with top wide receiver Emeka Egbuka limited to 13 yards on four targets.
As feared, Daniels is going to rely heavily on his legs (55 yards on eight carries) and will severely limit the team's passing game (5.5 YPA, 4.2 aDOT). Irving's heavy usage as a ball carrier means he should remain in lineups, but even he is risky -- especially with Kenny Gainwell and Sean Tucker (both of whom scored in Week 4) also involved. No other Buccaneers players should be near lineups.
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Parker Washington
Fantasy scoop: Washington should remain in lineups this week despite having now scored fewer fantasy points in each consecutive week of the season -- the most recent of which was a one-catch, 7-yard showing on three targets against the Bengals on Sunday. Still, there's not much need to panic here. For starters, Washington did score 13-plus fantasy points in each of his first three games and his playing time hasn't wavered (75% snap share, 85% route participation on the season). Additionally, Sunday's dud can at least partially be attributed to shadow coverage by standout corner DJ Turner on all 12 of Washington's perimeter routes.
Washington's target share remains strong at 26% and he remains a WR2 against an Eagles defense that has allowed 19-plus fantasy points to three receivers during its last two outings.
Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, Luther Burden III
Fantasy scoop: Kyle Monangai exploded for 146 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries against the Jets on Sunday. Monangai's career day was inflated by Chicago outsnapping New York 89-32 (regression alert!), but it's notable that the second-year back outsnapped Swift 48-32. Despite the strong effort, we can't get too carried away here, as he trailed Swift in snaps (134-75), carries (54-30) and targets (10-4) during the first three games of the season.
Monangai, who had exactly 10 carries through the first three games of the season, very well could take on a larger share of the workload moving forward, but the more likely outcome is that his usage will be inconsistent, just like in 2025. Additionally, his fantasy output remains limited by a minimal receiving role (five targets in four games).
Monangai, who has two games with 20-plus fantasy points and two with less than 8.0 points this season, is running the ball well (5.4 YPC) behind a terrific line, but he won't always be the hot hand. He's no more than a boom/bust flex in a good matchup against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the second-most TDs (eight) and third-most fantasy points to RBs.
Fantasy scoop: C.J. Stroud came through with 347 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns against Dallas in Week 4. The 23.1 fantasy point effort was his fourth best showing over his last 39 games, tracing back to the start of the 2024 season. Stroud's passing production has been good (top eight in attempts, completions and yards), but that's been inflated by game script -- Houston has trailed on 71% of its offensive snaps, fourth highest -- and he's thrown only five TD passes (19th).
Stroud remains a minimal factor as a rusher (9-66-0 on the season) and won't be a recommended streaming option anytime soon. That includes against a Titans defense yet to allow 19 fantasy points to any quarterback this season.
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: In the Dolphins' first game without De'Von Achane, their RB usage was as follows: Ollie Gordon II had 22 snaps, nine carries, nine routes and two targets while Jaylen Wright saw 11 snaps, five carries, two routes and zero targets. Interestingly, Wright drew the start and played the first three snaps, but it was Gordon who emerged as the hot hand. The 2025 sixth-round pick showed well with a 9-100-1 rushing line -- and that came despite Miami managing only 37 offensive snaps (the league average this season is 61.8). Gordon was also productive in Week 3 (55 yards and one score on 20 touches), so it's very possible he'll be able to hang in there in the flex conversation. However, there's obvious risk with Wright in the mix on a low-scoring offense.
Fantasy scoop: In Week 4, Romeo Doubs exploded for six catches, 58 yards and a pair of touchdowns on a season-high nine targets. The performance came after the ex-Packer totaled a 6-145-0 receiving line on just 11 targets during his first three games. Doubs' playing time has been consistent throughout the season, but the big change in Week 4 (which also applies to Drake Maye) was the opposition. After facing Seattle (second in defensive EPA), Pittsburgh (13th) and Jacksonville (fourth) during Weeks 1-3, the Patriots' passing game took a big leap forward against Buffalo (28th) on Sunday.
This week, New England will face a surprisingly solid Las Vegas defense (seventh) that has allowed a league-low 49% catch rate to receivers this season. Tyquan Thornton and Chris Olave have produced 19-plus points against Las Vegas over the past two weeks, so there's some hope here, but we shouldn't get too carried away with Doubs just yet. He should be valued as a WR3/flex until A.J. Brown returns in a few weeks.
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave
Fantasy scoop: On Monday, in the Saints' first game with Travis Etienne Jr. on IR, their RB usage was as follows: Alvin Kamara had 28 snaps, seven carries, 18 routes and seven targets; Kendre Miller saw 18 snaps, six carries, 10 routes and three targets; CJ Donaldson got 24 snaps, three carries, 13 routes and two targets. Kamara was limited to 23 rushing yards but scored two touchdowns and posted a healthy 5-35-0 receiving line. Miller and Donaldson, meanwhile, combined for 42 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns on 13 touches.
Kamara's usage, which would have been slightly higher in a more competitive game, is enough to keep him in the flex discussion, but his ceiling is limited with the team committed to rotating between three backs. Kamara is best avoided this week against a Minnesota defense that has allowed only one touchdown and the fewest fantasy points to RBs.
Fantasy scoop: Deshaun Watson sits 13th among quarterbacks in fantasy points this season, which is higher than you might think for a guy yet to deliver a top-10 fantasy week. Watson has been more solid than spectacular, having yet to clear 268 passing yards in any game and with a total of just six TDs through four outings. Watson has made up for that with his legs, ranking in the top three among QBs in both carries (31) and rushing yards (127).
Watson has found his way to the QB2 mix, but he's an uninspiring Week 5 start against a Jets defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points. Granted, the competition has been fairly light, but no QB has reached 20 points against New York this season.
Fantasy scoop: Michael Pittman Jr. has scored a total of 15.9 fantasy points in three games with the Steelers this season. This, after the veteran receiver hit that mark in six individual games with the Colts last season. Pittman has been on the field plenty (78% snap share, 72% route participation) but simply hasn't been on Aaron Rodgers' radar very often. Pittman's 11.1% target share is less than half of his 25.3% rate during the past five seasons. He's also yet to clear five targets in any game and has a total of just 31 yards on nine targets since returning from injury in Week 3.
Pittman might eventually emerge as a flex option, but the minuscule usage means -- at least for the time being -- he belongs on benches (or, in shallower leagues, left on the waiver wire).
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin, Isaiah Likely
Fantasy scoop: Cam Skattebo has been busy to open the 2026 season, but it hasn't converted to much fantasy upside. The second-year back has played on a healthy 65% of the Giants' offensive snaps and sits 10th among backs in carries and 18th in scrimmage yards. Skattebo has been limited by underwhelming rushing production (3.46 YPC), a lack of scoring (one TD, two carries inside the 5) and a minimal role in the passing game (67 yards on nine targets).
Skattebo is averaging 11.1 fantasy PPG and has yet to deliver a top-15 fantasy week. The rushing workload is just enough to keep Skattebo in the RB2 mix against a Washington defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points (only Jonathan Taylor has reached 11 points against them).
Fantasy scoop: RJ Harvey's involvement in the Denver passing game reached a new high Sunday when the second-year back caught all 10 of his targets for 68 yards against the 49ers. Harvey previously posted 4-23-0 and 6-41-0 receiving lines in his first two appearances of the season and, despite missing Week 2, sits top 6 among running backs in targets, catches and receiving yards.
Generally, that amount of receiving workload would get a running back into the RB2 mix, but Harvey has been a near-zero as a rusher (12-49-0). With J.K. Dobbins handling most of the carries and Tyler Badie also a factor in the passing game, Harvey remains a low-ceiling flex option, at best.
Lineup locks: Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jeremiyah Love, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta
Fantasy scoop: Both Goff and Brissett are streaming options this week against two defenses that have struggled badly against the pass. Goff will face an Arizona defense that has allowed 11 passing TDs and a 9.1 YPA (both highest in the league), whereas Brissett is in an even better spot against a Detroit unit that is worst in defensive EPA and has allowed the most yards, TDs and fantasy points to QBs. Bryce Young's 21.4 fantasy points in Week 4 was the worst showing by a QB against Detroit through four games.
Goff (19-plus fantasy points in three straight games) is the safer play of the two, but Brissett (31 total TDs in 16 games since taking over as Arizona's starter) isn't far behind.
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Mike Evans, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: On Sunday, Emanuel Wilson took control (for now) of the Seattle backfield, totaling a 21-81-1 rushing line and adding 3-39-1 on four targets. His big game came with Jadarian Price on IR, though Wilson has now handled over half of the team's carries in three consecutive games, including a 21-carry, 92-yard effort in Week 2. Wilson is eventually going to cede work to the likes of Zach Charbonnet (seemingly a couple weeks away from a return) and perhaps also Price, but he appears likely to remain the feature back in Week 5.
Wilson is in a respectable spot against a 49ers defense that has allowed the eighth-most RB fantasy points, including 19-plus to Jeremiyah Love and RJ Harvey over the past two weeks.
Fantasy scoop: With Lamar Jackson in doubt for Week 5, Tyler Huntley will be under center for the Ravens. In the 17 career games in which he's played on 80% or more of snaps, Huntley has a total of 17 touchdowns (12 passing, 5 rushing) and 11 interceptions. He's averaging 177.6 passing yards and 14.0 fantasy PPG during those outings, with a lot of his production coming via the run (7.8 carries and 41.9 rushing yards per game).
Two of those 17 games came during the 2025 season, where both Henry (32.4 fantasy PPG) and Flowers (13.6) remained good fantasy options. Those two belong in lineups against Atlanta, though fringe starters such as Mark Andrews are best left on benches.
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, James Cook III, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, DJ Moore
Fantasy scoop: The Dalton Kincaid train has come to a screeching halt. The fourth-year tight end appeared to be on the verge of a breakout season after posting receiving lines of 5-130-0 and 7-95-1 during the first two games of the season. However, in the two games since, he has totaled a 3-45-0 line on only five targets. After seeing his most playing time since midway through the 2024 season in Week 1, Kincaid has had his snap share and route participation progressively dip each of the past three weeks.
Kincaid's track record suggests boom/bust playing time and fantasy production is what we should continue to expect from him -- and that makes him a risky play against the Rams on Monday night. Los Angeles has allowed the fewest yards (85) to tight ends this season and none have cleared 8.3 fantasy points.
