Seven things Solak thinks entering NFL Week 5: Jaguars are the AFC's best, more
Has Jacksonville climbed to the top of its conference? Get ready for Week 5 with takes on the Jaguars, Bengals, Rams, Bears, Texans, Eagles and Lions.
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Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season is in the books. It was flag week in the NFL! I love a flag week. Who doesn't love a flag week? Referees threw 293 flags in Week 4, the most in a single week this season and in any season since 2019. My favorite flag thrower is Nathan Jones, the field judge for Carl Cheffers' crew -- I know, I know, normie pick -- but he kills it every time.
Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I'll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren't full-scale predictions; those come later. They aren't concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it'll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you'll find a few extra half-thoughts... just those little inklings I'm unable to shake.
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This week, I'll start with the crowning of a new top team in the AFC, discuss why another top AFC team needs to ignore their quarterback and wonder where all the play-action went in the Rams' offense.
Jump to: Jaguars are the class of the AFC Bengals don't need to pass more Rams need to rediscover play-action Johnson is Coach of the Year Stroud is finally back Eagles' offense is unrecoverable Lions' defense has no quick fix Four extra inklings
I think... the Jaguars are the class of the AFC
Here are the current odds to represent the conference from DraftKings:
AFC title odds after Week 4
The market has the Jaguars (3-1) in a weird spot right now. It doesn't like them enough to plant them atop the conference with the longstanding big three -- that's the Chiefs (4-0), Bills (3-1) and Ravens (3-1). But it thinks they're clearly better than the second tier of AFC contenders -- the Bengals (2-2), Patriots (2-2) and Broncos (2-2). It's not entirely sure what to do with the Jaguars.
I know what to do. Stick 'em in the top tier.
If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: Look at what the Jaguars have been since their Week 9 bye last season. They're 12-2 over 14 regular-season games, tied with the Seahawks for the best such record. Offensively, they are second in points per drive, and defensively they are third in points per drive.
Fourteen games is a pretty big sample, but we can check for easy pitfalls just in case. The Jaguars are third in turnover margin over that time at plus-11 with only 14 giveaways in 14 games -- that feels suspicious. But we have a better metric for turnover impact than margin, and its turnover EPA -- it helps us put a weight on turnovers, as some interceptions (thrown in the red zone, for example) hurt more than others (thrown on third-and-long 40-plus yards downfield). The Jaguars are 16th in turnover EPA per game over this stretch of games, bang on league average.
What about strength of schedule? Have they been treading over cupcakes? That was a legitimate concern throughout the 2025 season. They played a stretch of bad offenses, including the Daniel Jones-less Colts twice, the Cam Ward Titans twice and the Brady Cook Jets. To start 2026, the defense had faced Deshaun Watson's Browns, the Bo Nix Broncos -- a worryingly good game for Nix, if you're a Jaguars believer -- and a disastrous game from the Drake Maye Patriots.
Then they played the Bengals and Joe Burrow on Sunday... a stiffer test.
It was a solid team 22-17 win across the board. The Jaguars had a 34.5% pressure rate against Burrow. The pass rush, which I had lamented as a potential Achilles' heel for a contender not two weeks ago, showed up in a huge way. Arik Armstead had more pressures in this one game (six) than the entire Jacksonville defensive tackle room had produced through the first two weeks of the season. Burrow threw two picks on the day, and both were the result of pressure in the pocket.
Defensively, the Jaguars accounted for the absence of outside corner Montaric Brown (hamstring) with a full menu of Travis Hunter coverage snaps. He played 71 defensive snaps, not sitting out a single play. He had seven targets in 48 coverage snaps and surrendered only four catches for 30 yards -- most of them underneath completions in zone coverage. He had two pass breakups on the day and another interception wiped out by a roughing the passer penalty.
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On offense, the Jaguars had one of the most impressive rushing days of coach Liam Coen's tenure. The Jaguars averaged 4.7 yards per carry (seventh-best game) with 2.4 of those yards coming before contact (second-best game). Second-year man Bhayshul Tuten had two big runs called back for penalties, and the Jaguars suffered a few stuffs at the hands of the Bengals' Dexter Lawrence II. But it was a balanced approach. Also, don't forget about Cam Little's big leg -- he nailed two 50-plus-yard field goals. The Jaguars are a complete team.
If you feel as if you've noticed a theme in the summary of Jacksonville's success against Cincinnati... the Jaguars were swimming upstream against their own miscues. Jacksonville ate 125 yards worth of penalties in this game, its worst single-game number in the past six seasons. This scoreboard could have and should have been more lopsided with better discipline across the board.
In the Coen tenure, the Jaguars have risen well against AFC contenders. They split with Cincinnati over the past two seasons and split the series with Houston last season in a weird loss to Davis Mills. They took Buffalo to the final bell in the postseason and beat Kansas City in the regular season at a final bell of their own.
The only thing this team doesn't have is a recent, deep postseason run -- it hasn't made the divisional round since 2022 -- to give it a sense of tenure and legitimacy. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson were in the divisional round in 2024 and the conference championship in 2023. The Bills were in the divisional round last year and the conference championship in 2024. I don't need to explain the Chiefs' experience. We've seen all of them there, so it's easier to imagine seeing them again.
We've also seen those quarterbacks win MVP trophies. Five of the past eight, to be exact.
Continued doubt in the Jaguars is borne only by suspicion in Trevor Lawrence, who didn't immediately reach his billing as the next generational quarterback when he was selected with the No. 1 pick in 2021. Because he was shaky to start his career (under Urban Meyer and on a dreadful roster, mind you), his blossoming now must be fraudulent, right?
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If Lawrence is less trustworthy than Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the difference-making passer on a top tier contending team because of his lack of MVP trophies and deep postseason experience, then there's nothing I can say now to change your mind. You have to wait to see what awards he wins this season and how deep his team goes.
But if I can convince you that sometimes, gifted quarterbacks don't land with the right playcaller at first -- that sometimes, Matthew Stafford has to sit and toil in Detroit for seasons before he can find his Sean McVay, and Matt Ryan must do the same -- then perhaps we can reframe this moment for Lawrence. I wrote it after Week 1 and still believe it after Week 4: The guy looks like an MVP. He doesn't play like a middling quarterback propped up by an elite playcaller -- nor does Coen coach him that way. Too much of this offense is built on his arm, his throws on the move, his pre-snap acumen. He is what we were promised. Not insufficient, just delayed.
Don't buy the Jaguars yet if you don't want to. I understand your hesitancy. Just don't forget that you were offered a chance to buy in on the ground floor.
I think... the Bengals need to ignore Joe Burrow about their pass-heavy approach
The Bengals threw the football on 81.7% of their offensive snaps against the Jaguars. Of course, they largely trailed in this game, so that makes sense. Only... it didn't have to be this way. We can compare their actual pass rate to their projected pass rate via NFL Next Gen Stats' model, which considers the specific down-and-distances and score differentials they faced. The Bengals had a projected pass rate of 70.6%, and accordingly they had a pass rate over expectation of 11.1% -- the fourth highest of any offense in a game so far this season.
Burrow was asked about the 80-20 split in playcalls during his postgame news conference and gave an answer both surprising and unsurprising: "Let's throw it more."
This is an unsurprising answer because it has always been Burrow's answer. His superpower since he entered the league has been the volume of dropbacks he can take given his pre- and post-snap acumen, his accuracy and his chemistry with his receivers. Since 2021, when Ja'Marr Chase joined Burrow and Tee Higgins in Cincinnati, the Bengals have the second-highest pass rate over expectation, behind only Mahomes and the Chiefs. This is all Burrow, too -- the pass rate over expectation is plus-3.0% in his starts and minus-1.1% when any other quarterback plays.
It is a surprising answer in the larger context of the league. Those same Chiefs that dominate the Bengals (and the rest of the NFL) in pass rate over expectation? They've changed their stripes, and it has been a long time coming.
This season, the Chiefs have the lowest pass rate over expectation they've had in the Mahomes era. They have the highest rate of run-action (runs per play-action pass look) they've had in the same era. They are under center more than they've ever been. All of these changes reflect larger league shifts and have been anticipated by changes in other teams with superstar quarterbacks, such as the Bills with Josh Allen.
Of course, there's value in breaking away from leaguewide tendencies. When the Rams deployed their 13 personnel package at midseason in 2025, it was so effective in large part because defenses were getting lighter as offenses played more wide receivers. A well-timed zag can shock the league and propel a team to new schematic heights.
The best offenses are increasingly getting under center to either run the football or bluff the run -- leaguewide shotgun rates are at the lowest they've been since the 2017 season. Under-center play-action fakes account for 10.2% of all offensive snaps so far this season, marking the fourth consecutive season in which the under-center play-action rate has jumped. Cincinnati is at 7.2% under-center play-action (third lowest in the NFL) with 72.9% of their snaps in the gun (highest).
To the Bengals' credit, these numbers have improved year-over-year. That 7.2% under-center play-action rate is more than double their rate in Burrow's starts over the past three years combined (2.9%). Similarly, their shotgun rate is down from 84.8%. They're trying.
But it sounds as if Burrow wants to bail. After two completions on under-center play-action dropbacks to start Sunday's game, he took two sacks, and Cincinnati never called such a dropback again.
We shouldn't overreact to Sunday's loss -- the Jaguars (3-1) are a good team, and the Bengals (2-2) have largely benefitted from Burrow's excellence as a field general in the shotgun over the course of his career. But when you play in only one mode, opposing defenses can tee off. Burrow was pressured on 34.5% of his dropbacks Sunday -- a reasonable rate, but on a grand total of 20 pressures. Over the course of 20 pressures, a couple of disasters are going to strike.
Burrow's first interception, right after the two-minute warning in the first half, was a good example. At the Jaguars' 45-yard line with two minutes on the clock and two timeouts, a lot of teams would run the ball and ensure they get the final possession no matter what. But Cincinnati is throwing because they rightfully trust Burrow. However, Jaguars edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen spills left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who's having a tough year, right into Burrow's lap; Burrow throws while getting hit, and the ball lame-ducks into Jourdan Lewis' waiting arms.
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On Burrow's second pick, he throws directly into coverage as the looping Armstead comes free up the pipe. We've seen Burrow try to escape this pressure many times -- but it's the Jaguars' 15th pressure of the game, and the hits are starting to wear on him. He wants the ball out, so he throws late to receiver Mitchell Tinsley, who's in because Chase was ruled out because of a concussion, and their miscommunication makes the pick effortless.
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That Chase was out for much of this game is significant. Living in the dropback pass world is still the best offensive approach in Cincinnati -- with Burrow, Higgins and Chase, how could it not be? But without different modes of offensive approach, there's no way to account for injury. Without a respectable running game, the Bengals can never convene on the sideline midgame and say, "They're teeing off on the pass rush and playing light boxes. Let's punish them!" The Jaguars were in Cover 2 on 13.8% of their snaps in Week 4, more than triple their rate (4.1%) over the first three weeks of the season. The Bengals had no way to get them out of it.
Again, the sky is not falling -- as Burrow also said postgame, this is not "Armageddon." But the quarterback's faith is apparently starting to waver in this offensive evolution. The Bengals will be better for the long term if they continue committing to a more balanced offense, even if they suffer in the short term. But only if that short term is short enough that they don't lose their quarterback along the way.
I think... the Rams need to rediscover play-action
The Rams, by preseason expectations, should have been 15-0 through four weeks of the NFL season. Instead, they are 2-2, with two unconvincing wins coming against a Giants team that lost Jaxson Dart and an Eagles team that flubbed several opportunities to put away the Rams. They've dealt with a rash of early-season injuries -- WR Puka Nacua (hip), edge Myles Garrett (knee), DT Aaron Donald (back), CB Jaylen Watson (shoulder) and TE Terrance Ferguson (ankle) have all sat out time. But they are also, evidently, less than they were in 2025.
The biggest decline I can find on offense is in the play-action pass game. In 2025, 33% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks were under-center play-action fakes -- one out of every three! Second place was Caleb Williams at 26.8%, a huge difference.
In 2026, the Rams' number is down to 21.4% -- fourth in the league. The efficiency has also fallen off substantially as they have moved away from that particular offensive approach. They're down more than 2 yards per attempt despite a much higher depth of target, and their pressure rate has almost doubled.
Rams offense on under-center play-action throws
Watching back their play-action snaps, the absence of Nacua is sorely felt -- in that he has been gone for half of the Rams' games, we should be cautious of overreacting to this small sample. But Stafford loved to throw to his big-bodied receiver working over the middle of the field on these play-action fakes, and the Rams have seemingly abandoned that chapter of their playbook. Stafford threw 41 passes on crossers or deep in-breakers off play-action last season -- those are the money routes on play-action fakes -- and 13 of those went to Nacua. Through four games this season, Stafford has two.
The lack of crossing and breaking routes also reveals the lack of rollouts. In 2025, 14.2% of Stafford's dropbacks were designed boots or rollouts off play-action, per Next Gen Stats -- ranking third in NFL. This season, the count is down 5.8%, ranking 19th among quarterbacks and below league average. Were that number to hold, it'd be the lowest for any Rams quarterback under Sean McVay since Next Gen Stats started charting in 2018.
Unlike the overall play-action numbers (which probably took a hit during Nacua's absence because of his particular skill set), we can't explain the rollout numbers away with Nacua's injury. Stafford has booted more in the two games without Nacua (eight dropbacks) than he did in the games with him (two dropbacks).
I have no good explanation for this besides Stafford's age (38) and health. Rollouts have always been a huge part of McVay's play-action pass game, no matter how immobile his quarterback. Even last season, as the Rams fully evolved into a duo running game and rarely used wide zone, McVay still booted his quarterback to take advantage of biting linebackers. Stafford reportedly has no greater concerns regarding his back this season than he did in 2025, so I'm not sure what changed. But the Rams don't want him on the move anymore.
This is doubly perplexing when you consider the Rams' personnel change at offensive tackle, as Rob Havenstein has been replaced by Warren McClendon Jr. after retiring. McClendon and left tackle Alaric Jackson are the weak points in the Rams' offensive line, and one of the best ways to protect those points is with boot-action!
I truly don't understand why the Rams have gone this way on offense. Nothing about a more traditional dropback game for a 13 personnel team and an aging quarterback makes much sense to me. If it were the case that opposing defenses are playing the play-action fake more ambitiously than ever before, then the running game would appear even more effective than last season -- but the numbers are fairly equal.
In Week 5, the Rams have a Monday night bout with the Bills -- an extremely gettable defense even before their accumulating injuries to Ed Oliver (knee), Christian Benford (toe) and Dee Alford (ankle). But less interesting than the particular opponent is the time of year. It was on Sunday, Oct. 19, last season that the Rams' receiver injuries forced them to deploy their first big 13 personnel game, and that innovation defined the rest of their season. This second month of the season is the moment in which McVay has another opportunity to reimagine the passing game and invent a new offensive identity. I'd bet we see the play-action and rollout rate spike over the next few weeks as one of the league's best offensive minds does what he does best.
I think... Ben Johnson is Coach of the Year
Here's a wild stat. Only three head coaches in NFL history have won three of their first four games in a season with three different starting quarterbacks: Tom Coughlin in 1997, Al Saunders in 1987 and Don Shula in 1980.
Johnson would have been the fourth coach on this list... if not for the fact that he got smarmy and made Case Keenum, not Tyson Bagent, the starting quarterback in Week 4 by giving Keenum the first snap from under center... and then played Bagent the rest of the game. Johnson wanted to make a point after it was reported this week that Bagent was the Week 4 starter before Johnson had announced his selection.
Still, the Bears' three wins have come with three different quarterbacks this year, and each win has been more impressive than the last. Caleb Williams' 59-point outing against the Panthers in Week 1 feels like a distant memory after Keenum's 27-point outing over the Eagles in Week 3 and Bagent's 23-12 victory over the Jets in Week 4.
We had never seen Johnson work with a backup quarterback before Week 3. Jared Goff never sat out a game with the Lions, and Williams was healthy for the 2025 season. Now we've seen Johnson build two custom game plans for two new, imperfect passers in Keenum and Bagent.
For Keenum in Week 3, it was all quick game -- 58.8% of Keenum's passes were out in under 2.5 seconds, comfortably the highest rate by a Bears quarterback under Johnson. For Bagent, it was about manageable throws -- Bagent's air yards per attempt (5.8) is the lowest for any Bears quarterback under Johnson save for Williams' Week 2 game this season, played against the Vikings in the rain.
That's not to say the entire offense was behind the line of scrimmage. It's that Johnson used Bagent, who has a zippy release but not a ton of distance on his arm, like the 49ers use Brock Purdy or the Dolphins once used Tua Tagovailoa. They kept the play-action concepts closer to the line of scrimmage and quicker-hitting.
The Jets wanted to overwhelm Bagent with blitz looks -- a reasonable gambit against a quarterback making his fifth start, and first since 2023. Johnson responded by running into the blitz, insulating his quarterback with a 9.3% run rate over expectation, fourth highest of his Bears tenure. Chicago also messed with tempo (10.1% no-huddle rate despite leading all game) while stringing together agonizingly long drives. Johnson has long preached explosives in his offense, and Williams has embraced that philosophy wholly. But with backups Keenum and Bagent, Johnson has shown he can take the air out of the game with a heavy dose of running, short passes and field management.
It might not ever go this swimmingly. The Bears' defense has been dominant through two weeks against two imperfect offenses. Bagent tried to throw four interceptions in this game -- only one was not overturned by penalty. But Johnson has squarely put himself in the McVay/Shanahan air of being able to win any game with his backup quarterback in by making both the big and small adjustments necessary to cater the system to the particular skill set he has under center. Chicago now has two road games -- always harder for backups on the road -- but against beatable opponents in the Packers and Falcons. If they get Williams back with a 5-1 record before a Thursday night clash with New England... what an enormous feather that will be in Johnson's cap.
It will be hard for Johnson to actually win Coach of the Year, as the award historically goes to a coach who presided over a huge turnaround in win/loss record (think Mike Vrabel last year or Klint Kubiak this year). The Bears were 11-6 last season, and Johnson should have won the award then. They might be 11-6 again this season, and I'll still argue for the cumulative work he has done on this offense. Johnson deserves a trophy in his case.
I think... C.J. Stroud is back
Watch this play.
Obsessed with this Stroud TD. ++ pocket management after Quinnen bull rush. Cowboys spin to 2 Hole which should take away Collins on the dig. Stroud's scramble pulls Downs downhill. Look at how quick that release is (+ location!) to protect Collins from the deep half player. pic.twitter.com/azKUcsV2Vn
This is a high-level play from snap to score. The Cowboys spin the coverage at the snap to 2 Hole (think Tampa 2, but with a safety dropping into the middle hole instead of a linebacker). This takes away Stroud's desired first read (wide receiver Nico Collins on the dig) while Cowboys defensive tackle Quinnen Williams gets big pressure up the middle on a bull rush. One second in, and this snap is a win for the Cowboys' defense.
But... Stroud creates. He's calm and safe with the ball in the pocket and finds an upfield lane. As he avoids contact, he sees that the hole safety has lost Collins, suckered in by the threat of Stroud's run. Stroud gets into his release fast -- if he loads and throws, Collins will run himself into coverage. So while still running forward, he snaps into a hyperspeed throwing motion that gets the ball in flight before the deep half player can get on his horse. The throw is accurate in that it pulls Collins to the ground, away from the huge incoming hit (that was flagged for unnecessary roughness). Touchdown.
This is the Stroud I remember -- an exciting blend of clean pocket management and timing alongside creativity and feel. The comp for Stroud coming out of Ohio State was Jared Goff, but in the NFL, it has been his movement skills and releases from odd platforms that have separated him from that traditional cut of pocket passer.
Stroud was nails against the Cowboys. In fact, Stroud has been nails for the entire season. His numbers against the Bengals and Colts are unspectacular, given the lack of Collins and some drop-heavy performances from Collins' backups. But the film is not just reminiscent of the 2023 season, in which Stroud dawned as a dominant rookie -- it is at a higher degree of difficulty. This is the sort of player you pay $55 million dollars.
Of course, the Texans didn't get that contract extension done this offseason, as Stroud looked for a stronger performance (and a fatter contract) out of 2026. The tricky thing now is the Texans' record: 0-4. Only one 0-4 team has made the playoffs since 1990 -- the 1992 Chargers. It's never great when the historical precedent for a team was set in the same year my parents were married.
