Four weeks into the NFL season, the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers are winless, a deeper stumble than anticipated. Which team can rebound, and which problems are real? The San Francisco 49ers look strong, as predicted, but is that start sustainable? Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are Super Bowl favorites, yet their regular-season win total still offers a fade.
Texans: 0-4, 0-4 ATS (45-1 to win Super Bowl, 18-1 entering Week 1)
The biggest preseason concern for Houston was whether the offense could finally complement an elite defense. Instead, the defense has become part of the problem. Houston is allowing 27 points per game after allowing 17 PPG last season. More concerning, the offseason investment in the run game hasn't translated. David Montgomery is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, leaving C.J. Stroud responsible for creating most of the offense (again).
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Stroud has actually been solid, throwing for 1,141 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. It's the lack of red zone execution -- top half of the league in attempts, bottom 10 in touchdowns scored. There's reason to expect improvement: Houston has essentially matched its opponents in total yardage, owns a positive turnover margin and has lost two games by four points or less. This looks more like an underperforming team than a terrible one.
The fix starts with the run game, even if that means leaning more on Woody Marks or adjusting the blocking approach rather than forcing Montgomery into something that isn't working. Defensively, Houston has to limit explosive passes; the pass rush is still getting home, so the secondary needs to capitalize on that pressure.
There's room for regression toward competence, but it shouldn't involve Stroud becoming Superman -- just play complementary football. Houston's season win total was 9.5 going into the season. At 0-4, the market has dropped them to 7.5. Seven wins is the new benchmark.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers had high hopes coming into the season. Things have not gone as planned. Steph Chambers/Getty Images The Chargers lost their foundation before it ever had an identity Chargers: 0-4, 0-3-1 ATS (100-1 to win Super Bowl, 17-1 entering Week 1)
The Chargers were a preseason regression candidate because last year's 11 wins were helped by a soft schedule and close-game success. The bad news: their 0-4 start goes beyond regression.