Follow your feelings, but here are the facts on these Week 4 fantasy football start-sit decisions
Winning at fantasy or at life requires following your feelings. Liz Loza makes sure you have the facts to inform those decisions.
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It's often said that misery loves company. The idiom primarily implies that forlorn folks are on a mission to infect their happy-go-lucky counterparts with negativity and dread. That can be true. Whether at a social gathering or in everyday conversation, we've each encountered a Debbie Downer who can kill the vibe with a "yes, but" statement and an ill-timed shrug.
But dig a little deeper and the message might change. Because often company eases misery. Sometimes we want to gather to vent and find comfort in each other's adversities. Whether it's a bad vacation bond, a text from your ex roast session, or a mutual fantasy football fail, there's something cathartic about knowing we're not solo in our struggles. That's not being an Eeyore. That's being a human.
We crave community. Not to rain on parades, but to share umbrellas.
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So, when a Detroit sports fan called into the Facts vs Feelings: Fantasy Therapy voicemail line seeking lineup advice and a potential love connection... I listened. What group, after all, understands the catharsis of commiseration better than Lions fans? (I see you, Cleveland.) Who is more deserving of affection than those faithfully sporting Honolulu Blue? (Not right now, Silver and Black.) How do you ice out a die-hard whose team has never been to a Super Bowl? (You weren't even around in the 1900s, Houston.)
Rather than embracing resignation, Luke from Los Angeles reached out. And as chance would have it, I'm good friends with an unattached Lions Baddie. The two, empathizing with each other's plight and delighting in the randomness of the universe, agreed to a meet cute. I joined them and their friends at a neighborhood bar on the East Side last Sunday. Introductions were made, nachos were smashed, and fight songs were sung. The two bonded over David Montgomery's slumping fantasy stats and their complicated fondness for Matthew Stafford.
I don't know if this is a romcom in the making. But I can tell you that the second-largest city in the U.S. felt a little less lonely last weekend. Because two strangers -- bonded by shared misery -- became fast friends. They stayed open to possibility, even if the only payout was a good story.
It's a lesson for all of us. Maybe flexing Denzel Boston didn't work out. Perhaps rolling with Terry McLaurin did. Either way, we have to stay bold in our choices. They may not all end in immediate triumph. The plot twists, however, could make for a winning journey... or at least a satisfying vent sesh.
Week 4 Start-Sit decisions
He should slay in Week 4 against the Bengals. Offenses have continuously attacked Cincinnati through the air, resulting in the third-most pass attempts faced (118). That strategy has been effective, as quarterbacks are carving up the Bengals for the fifth-most passing yards per game (287). With this game carrying the week's highest projected point total (51.5) and a tight 2.5-point spread, Lawrence figures to deliver top-10 positional fantasy production.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Minnesota Vikings
The number of Jones-related DMs that I received last week! Each one highly suspicious of the 31-year-old's ability to keep the wheels on the wagon. I was a staunch advocate, but the public had its doubts. Despite Jordan Mason's firm placement on IR, Jones was started in just 47% of leagues. And yet, the vet finished the week inside the top 15 of fantasy producers at the position with a solid 14.2 points. It's not a new trend, as he has cleared 10 fantasy points in three consecutive efforts this season as well as five straight at the close of 2025.
The workload has been robust and consistent. Jones has logged at least 22 touches and eclipsed an 80% snap share in back-to-back weeks, a feat matched by only Jonathan Taylor and Ashton Jeanty over the same span. Jones has maximized this volume, notably tying a career high with five receptions in Week 3, his highest mark since 2024. Expect the production to continue versus Miami in Week 4. The Dolphins have allowed the most fantasy points per game (27.9) to RBs. Lock Jones in as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside this Sunday.
Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks
The price was apparently not right for Jadarian. Fantasy's RB39 overall, the rookie has recorded fewer than eight fantasy points in three consecutive outings. While he's been arguably effective as a rusher, ripping off five runs of 10 or more yards (RB9), he's been stuck in a three-way committee, with Zach Charbonnet's return on the horizon. Price's 35% snap share ranks 45th at the position. He's additionally tallied fewer rushes than Emanuel Wilson, fewer receptions than George Holani and zero carries inside the 5-yard line.
Seattle Seahawks Running Backs
Through Week 3
Fumbles have additionally plagued the player out of Notre Dame. One of my editors -- a tried-and-true "12" -- reluctantly pointed out that Price has lost more fumbles (two) in just three outings than Kenneth Walker III managed over his entire Seahawks career. That stings. Unfortunately, the pain doesn't figure to abate versus the Chargers in Week 4. While Los Angeles' run defense ranks in the middle of the pack with 3.6 yards per carry allowed, Chris O'Leary's unit has a knack for making big plays. The Bolts have already forced four fumbles this season and completely neutralized both Jeremiyah Love and Ashton Jeanty, holding both explosive backs to fewer than 13 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2. Until he secures the ball and earns more work, Price drops firmly into flex-only territory.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Entering the fall, expectations for a Year 3 breakout from Ladd McConkey were sky-high. Three subpar performances later and a lack of volume has left him falling short. McConkey ranks 45th at the position and third on his team in looks, having drawn a total of 15 targets (eight over the past two weeks) in three straight losses. The strong-armed Justin Herbert and the sure-handed McConkey have dazzled at times, as evidenced by the wideout's 13.5 aDOT (WR19) in combination with his 80% catch rate (T-WR12). However, history suggests this efficiency is entirely unsustainable. No wide receiver over the past decade has maintained a 75% catch rate with an aDOT of 13.5 or higher. Until Mike McDaniel adjusts the scheme and provides McConkey with more intermediate looks, the offensive constraints will continue to cap his weekly ceiling.
A duel with the Seahawks isn't likely to deliver relief. Seattle's defense has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers (23.8). In fact, Terry McLaurin is the only player to clear 10 fantasy points when facing the Hawks thus far into 2026. McConkey could defy the odds, but the data screams otherwise, rendering him a frustrating flex option until something changes.
D.J. Moore, WR, Buffalo Bills
Regardless of any complicated feelings, the fact is Moore's usage has been elite. Through the early stretch of the season, the vet has been targeted on a staggering 35% of his routes, the seventh-highest rate recorded by any wide receiver over the past decade. That historic volume was on display in Week 3, as Moore drew 10 targets despite a shoulder injury limiting him to just 22 routes. To put that workload into perspective, Bills pass catchers combined for only two games of 10-plus targets during the entire 2025 season. Even with Keon Coleman active, Moore remained Josh Allen's most trusted downfield threat. That's a solid place to land.
Highest Targets per Route Rate
Past 10 seasons
The matchup at New England looks scarier on paper than it portends to be. Despite Christian Gonzalez's imposing presence, the Patriots' defense has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to wideouts. In fact, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (26.2 FPTS), Jakobi Meyers (19.4 FPTS) and Parker Washington (13.0 FPTS) each posted fantasy-relevant numbers versus Zak Kuhr's squad. While Moore figures to duel with Gonzalez, his command of the corps affords him high-end flex appeal in Week 4 and an ascending outlook moving forward.
Turns out, Michael Wilson was the No. 1 wide receiver that Arizona needed all along. Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals The Maserati morphed into a minivan and Wilson moved into the driver's seat. It's a trend we probably should have anticipated, as Wilson has averaged the second-most targets per game (10.8, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown ) and the fifth-most fantasy points (19.1, behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Chris Olave and St. Brown) since Week 11 of last season. That stands in stark contrast to Marvin Harrison Jr., who drew a mere 20 looks (WR95) and averaged 4.43 (WR116) over that same span.
Granted, MHJ missed five contests during that stretch, but he was plenty healthy last Sunday. Yet, Wilson commanded 17 targets against San Francisco while Harrison managed just five. Wilson's high-volume upside is historic. Over the past three seasons, the only players with multiple 17-target games have been Ja'Marr Chase (5), St. Brown (3) and (ta-da) Wilson (2). The verdict is clear: We can no longer afford to wait on MHJ while ignoring Wilson.
Wilson is projected to garner only half of that volume in Week 4, but his matchup at New York should keep him productive. The Giants' secondary has been banged up and subsequently generous, surrendering the 12th-most fantasy points to WRs (106). In fact, four wideouts -- Davante Adams, Wan'Dale Robinson, CeeDee Lamb and Carnell Tate -- have cleared 11 fantasy points when facing the G-Men. Wilson figures to join those ranks and should be considered a top-25 fantasy option at the position heading into the weekend.
Darren Waller, TE, Carolina Panthers
I promised myself I wasn't going to do this, but after sifting through the stats, I can't resist. Waller appears to be a legit part of the Panthers' passing attack. Not only has his snap share increased each week (34% to 43% to 49%), but his eight targets led the team last Sunday. He's also been active in the red area, recording two end zone looks and hauling in two TDs.
That sort of involvement warrants streaming consideration, particularly in a favorable matchup versus Detroit. The Lions have allowed 100 total fantasy points to the tight end position over three outings. To put that in perspective, the Commanders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends with 64, a staggering 36-point gap. Furthermore, Detroit has allowed five tight ends to clear the 13-point mark and six tight ends to score a TD. With Jalen Coker banged up and the matchup perfectly exploitable, Waller is primed to surprise yet again.
