2026-27 NBA season preview: Rankings, predictions, odds
Here's everything you need to know for all 30 NBA teams for the season, including storylines, stats and predictions ahead of opening night.
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Welcome back to the NBA. Just in case you didn't hear:
Giannis Antetokounmpo is (finally) in Miami; Jaylen Brown (stunningly) is in Philadelphia; Ja Morant (somewhat stunningly) is in Portland; Kawhi Leonard is back in Toronto (it took a bit); LaMelo Ball is joining forces with Anthony Edwards in Minnesota's backcourt (it might take a bit); and the Lakers got a new lob threat for Luka Doncic (it worked last time): those major moves, plus the addition of a deep 2026 rookie class.
Oh. And a 41-year-old legend defying Father Time changed coasts, setting up the league's newest superteam, a major conference shift and potentially one of the most exciting seasons in recent history. Got all that?
On the eve of opening night, ESPN's NBA insiders and analysts are breaking down the storylines and stars that will shape 2026-27 and the run through the postseason.
Note: Team rankings are based on where members of our panel (ESPN's Jamal Collier, Michael C. Wright, Tim MacMahon, Dave McMenamin, Vincent Goodwill, Zach Kram, Brian Windhorst, Ben Golliver, Ramona Shelburne, Kris Rhim, Baxter Holmes and Anthony Slater) think teams belong heading into this season.
Jump to a team: ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GS HOU | IND | LAC | LAL | MEM MIA | MIL | MIN | NO | NY OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX | POR SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9% Projected wins: 60.7
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: The Thunder still have arguably the NBA's deepest roster despite the departures of a trio of championship-winning role players (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins) via a series of salary-shedding summer trades. Back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's supporting cast is loaded with talent, starting with All-NBA sidekicks Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain are talented young players to whom the Thunder are eager to give more minutes. Rookie first-rounders Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz both impressed during the preseason, but it will be difficult for them to earn immediate regular roles because OKC's rotation is so crowded. -- Tim MacMahon
Biggest strength: Oklahoma City has the league's top-ranked defense by a significant margin the last two seasons. The departure of Dort is a hit, but the Thunder still have a trio of recent All-Defensive selections (Wallace, Williams and Alex Caruso) to harass opposing perimeter stars. Holmgren is the most dominant defensive force in the league other than a certain Frenchman in San Antonio. The Thunder's ability to create turnovers fuels Oklahoma City's offense, and that aspect of the game should be upgraded with an increasing role for Wallace, last season's steals leader, and Williams' return to health. -- MacMahon
Biggest weakness: Rebounding is the biggest nit to pick with Oklahoma City, which ranked 22nd in the league with a 49.0% rebounding rate last season. The Thunder typically start a big lineup with a pair of 7-footers (Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein), but one blemish with the roster is that the size thins out at power forward behind Holmgren, whose lack of bulk is occasionally exposed in battles for rebounds. -- MacMahon
The 2026-27 NBA season tips off Tuesday with six teams set to face off. ESPN Bold prediction: The Thunder finish second -- not first -- in defensive rating. Oklahoma City led the league in this stat by wide margins in the last two seasons, finishing 2.5 points ahead of second place in 2024-25 and 2.4 points ahead of second place in 2025-26. But the Thunder lost Dort over the summer and will now rely on more defensive targets -- McCain and the young guys -- than in previous seasons, at the same time that Victor Wembanyama's Spurs could surpass them for the top spot on the defensive leaderboard. -- Zach Kram
Number to watch: 33%. In the 2024-25 regular season, when the Thunder went 68-14 and set a point differential record en route to the championship, they won 83% of their games. In 2025-26, counting both regular season and playoffs, they did slightly better by winning 84% of their games -- if you don't count their 4-8 record against the Spurs. But those 12 games at a 33% winning percentage -- 1-4 in the regular season, 3-4 in the conference finals -- were the most important of the Thunder's season, as they prevented Oklahoma City from returning to the Finals. -- Kram
Fantasy nugget: Wallace recorded 150 steals in 77 games last season despite averaging just 26.6 MPG. With Dort and Joe gone, he could see additional playing time. Wallace is being drafted just inside 150, making him particularly appealing for managers targeting steals late in category leagues. Increased minutes could also improve his 3-point production, although his scoring remains limited. -- Eric Moody
What Bobby Marks is watching: The Clippers. For a second consecutive season, Oklahoma City could have a lottery pick despite playing deep into the playoffs. The Thunder have two of the most favorable first-round picks of the Clippers, Denver (if 6-30) and their own. The Thunder also have a first from San Antonio if it falls between 17 and 30. The first from the Clippers was acquired as part of the James Harden trade with Philadelphia. The BPI projects LA to have the league's fifth-worst record.
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9% Projected wins: 59.1
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: At least early on, San Antonio's experimentation with three-guard lineups featuring De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle will generate most of the conversations concerning the Spurs. But other interesting lineups could be on the horizon with Spurs coach Mitch Johnson explaining, "That's just part of natural evolution that will take some time. But it's time to also push forward appropriately." Victor Wembanyama serves as the linchpin driving potential innovation in San Antonio. "Victor allows you to think outside the box in almost any way you want to," Johnson explained. -- Michael C. Wright
Biggest strength: Fox, Harper and Castle represent arguably the most talented backcourt trio in the league, and the overall roster is teeming with so much depth the Spurs will be forced to make difficult decisions regarding lineups. If San Antonio opts to start the guard trio regularly, its bench will be led by Julian Champagnie, who set a franchise record for made 3-pointers last season, and Keldon Johnson, the reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year. -- Wright
Biggest weakness: Outside of Wembanyama, free agent addition Tobias Harris and backup center Luke Kornet, San Antonio is relatively thin in the frontcourt. First-round pick Tarris Reed Jr. has shown promise throughout training camp and the preseason and might have a chance to fill in at center when frontcourt depth is thinned by injuries or rest days for Wembanyama or Kornet. -- Wright
Bold prediction: Wembanyama records the NBA's first quadruple-double since David Robinson in 1994, and just the fifth in recorded history. I also made this prediction last season and didn't come all that close to hitting, but I trust Wembanyama enough to try again. He has already reached double-digit assists three times in his career and double-digit blocks three times (counting playoffs), so he just needs to combine those achievable feats in the same game. -- Kram
Number to watch: 17.0. The Spurs posted a plus-17.0 net rating with Wembanyama on the floor last year, per NBA Advanced Stats. That was the second-best mark among all rotation players, and the only one in the top six that didn't belong to a Thunder player: Alex Caruso led the league in this stat, followed by Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell and Isaiah Hartenstein. -- Kram
Fantasy nugget: Castle averaged 16.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 7.4 APG last season, leading the Spurs in assists despite sharing the backcourt with Fox. He also averaged 8.9 assists per 36 minutes, up from 5.5 as a rookie. Harper's development could create more competition for touches, but Castle's rebounding and playmaking make him an appealing target at his ADP. -- Moody
What Bobby Marks is watching: Keldon Johnson's next contract. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year appeared in all 83 games last season (including the NBA Cup title game), setting the record for most points in a season by a reserve. But in the playoffs, Johnson reached double-digit points in just five of San Antonio's 16 games. Johnson is entering the final year of his contract and, through June 30, can extend for up to four seasons. With year one of Wembanyama's rookie extension set to begin next season, San Antonio is $9 million below the luxury and $16 million under the first apron.
BPI first-round projection: No. 14 (via ATL). Note: From the Dejounte Murray trade, San Antonio has an unprotected Atlanta first. The Spurs' own 2027 first will go to Sacramento or Oklahoma City.
3. New York Knicks
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 97.7% Projected wins: 51.7
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: How this team handles being the defending champion. For as much pressure as the Knicks faced within New York when breaking the 53-year drought, they'll face a different type of pressure on the road to repeating. Contracts for two key players, Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, along with the competition in the East ramping up will have many wondering if the Knicks will go for it in the regular season or play the long game. -- Vincent Goodwill
Biggest strength: Jalen Brunson has emerged into one of the steadiest leaders in the NBA and one of the most trusted in the clutch. If the Knicks go through regular-season turbulence, expect Brunson to address it internally and keep a cool head externally. If there's turbulence in a game, count on Brunson to play smart basketball with the rock in his hands. Now that he has cemented himself as a champion, he can play with a little extra arrogance knowing that he has conquered every challenge in front of him. -- Goodwill
Biggest weakness: Frontcourt depth. There will be times Mike Brown places OG Anunoby at small-ball center, although smart money says it won't happen too much. Losing Mitchell Robinson to Boston is a big blow to New York's rim protection and offensive rebounding, as he had his fingerprints on more than a few wins in critical situations last year. Will Andre Drummond -- a different type of center as far as skill set -- be able to fill the void in his own way? And will Towns and Drummond be reliable enough defensively for the long haul? -- Goodwill
Bold prediction: The Knicks win fewer regular-season games than in 2025-26. After a run to the Finals, the Knicks might take their foot off the pedal a bit in the regular season, and they benefited from excellent health that might not be repeatable (except by Mikal Bridges) this season. And with a stronger top-to-bottom Eastern Conference and the removal of tanking incentives, the Knicks could decline from 53 wins to a number lower in the 50s without compromising their status as favorites to return to the Finals. -- Kram
Fantasy nugget: The Knicks ranked third in the NBA in team offensive rating (ORtg) last season with 119.8 points scored per 100 possessions, then they improved to first in playoffs ORtg with 120.4 PP100 against better competition. First-year head coach Brown's offensive system proved successful, and really ramped up when he started running the offense more through Towns as a distributor in the postseason. High-efficiency offenses are good for fantasy production in general, but for Towns specifically, a further adaptation of his postseason role could lead to career-best assist numbers that would round him into a top-15 fantasy prospect. -- Snellings
What Bobby Marks is watching: Will extensions talks (or lack thereof) become distractions? The Knicks made a decision to publicly announce that contract extensions will not be negotiated until later in the season. Since the NBA Finals concluded in June, Towns, Hart, Miles McBride and Tyler Kolek have been eligible to sign new deals.
BPI first-round projection: None (Note: The Knicks sent Brooklyn their unprotected first as part of the Mikal Bridges trade.)
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 88.3% Projected wins: 47.5
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: Everything. If training camp was any indicator, there is no story too small to draw outsized attention with this team. Whether it was LeBron James' new mode of airborne transportation, Jaylen Brown's lack of interest in naming a pecking order for the new group or Joel Embiid rebutting a report about being late to practice, it is abundantly clear that every step Philadelphia takes will be chronicled and scrutinized. The talk will continue at that pitch until the Sixers show the team they are going to become. -- Dave McMenamin
Biggest strength: Top-level talent. With James, Brown, Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, the Sixers have one of the best starting fives in the league. Brown is coming off a career season with the Boston Celtics in which he averaged 29 points, seven rebounds and five assists per game. Maxey was fifth in the league in scoring last year (28.3 points) and was named an All-Star in two of the past three seasons. Edgecombe averaged 16.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists as a 20-year-old rookie. Embiid, when healthy, remains an offensive force. And James, despite being 41, is coming off yet another All-NBA season and playoff run in which he demonstrated he can still shoulder the load when the stakes are high. -- McMenamin
Biggest weakness: Chemistry. The Sixers rostered nine new players this season (including two-way contracts), and no matter how organized Philadelphia coach Nick Nurse might be, it will take time to round out his rotation and identify his ideal lineups. The second weakness is health -- not a unique obstacle for Philadelphia, but a pronounced one with Embiid missing 150 games in the last three seasons and Ariel Hukporti, a center signed in free agency to back Embiid up, going down with a season-ending Achilles tear in the preseason. -- McMenamin
Number to watch: 55.8%. According to GeniusIQ, the 76ers' defense allowed a shot quality of 55.8% last season, meaning their opponents would have been expected to finish with a 55.8% effective field goal mark, based on factors like shot location and defender distance. That was the sixth-highest opponent shot quality in the league, behind only five tanking teams that all lost at least 56 games. In other words, Philadelphia allowed the easiest shots of any team that was trying to win games. -- Kram
Fantasy nugget: The addition of James and Brown this offseason limits the fantasy outlook for all of their players. Brown, James, Maxey, Edgecombe and, when healthy, Embiid are all proven fantasy producers with high ceilings. But when playing together, none of them can attain their typical usage or volume. The presence of so much talent, along with two strong distributors in James and Maxey, could have a positive effect on each player's efficiency. But ultimately, the capped volume also caps each individual's fantasy value. -- Snellings
What Bobby Marks is watching: Maxey's next contract. Will the 76ers star-studded lineup cost Maxey a significant payday next summer? Because he was named All-NBA last season, Maxey is eligible to sign a four-year, $304 million deal next summer if he was named All-NBA again. He would also become eligible to sign a five-year, $393 million super max extension in the 2028 offseason. (Maxey has played at least 65 games in three of his six seasons.)
BPI first-round projection: No. 25
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 95.5% Projected wins: 47.8
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: The backcourt fit. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball -- from personality to play style to production -- form one of the most spectacular, captivating guard duos in recent NBA memory. They will draw eyeballs and generate a steady stream of highlights. But there's a reasonable question about how seamlessly they can fit. How well does Edwards, powering into his prime at 25, cede control of the offense to a true point guard? And can Ball sharpen his winning habits in a newer environment and now facing the greatest expectations of his career? -- Anthony Slater
Biggest strength: Pure talent and positional athleticism. The Wolves' perhaps forgotten man, Jaden McDaniels, had one of the more impressive first-round playoff performances in the league. He completely erased Nuggets guard Jamal Murray on the defensive end and scored 32 points in the closeout game without Edwards. At 26, McDaniels appears ready to become a two-way force on the wing. Minnesota is also planting Jonathan Kuminga, another highflyer entering his mid-20s, next to him in the starting lineup, while 7-3 Rudy Gobert (aging well at 34) looms behind as the protector. -- Slater
Biggest weakness: The weakened frontcourt in the matchups that matter. Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic and the Isaiah Hartenstein-Chet Holmgren combination remain as playoff tests the Timberwolves must conquer. Gobert defended Jokic well last April but struggled against Wembanyama. But he had bulkier backup. To acquire Ball, they had to give up Julius Randle and Naz Reid, stripping away at one of the deepest frontcourts in the league. They did grab Kuminga on a $6 million bargain but might need a breakout season from him to quell concerns. -- Slater
Bold prediction: Minnesota finishes with its best offensive ranking and worst defensive ranking since trading for Gobert. To date, the Timberwolves' best offensive finish with Gobert is eighth and their worst defensive finish is eighth. But they downsized with the Ball trade, and now they simultaneously have their most electric offensive backcourt in years -- possibly ever -- and their weakest defensive rotation around ace defenders Gobert and McDaniels. -- Kram
Number to watch: 6,008. The Timberwolves' acquisition of Ball means they now have the No. 1 and No. 3 picks from the 2020 draft in their backcourt: Edwards and Ball, respectively. Both players are All-Stars with incredible shooting range and a flair for highlights in transition. But among other differences -- such as Edwards' two conference finals trips, contrasted with zero playoff games for Ball -- one important gap separates the players' NBA trajectories thus far: Edwards has played 6,008 more regular-season minutes than his new teammate. That's the equivalent of roughly 200 extra games at a starter's workload. -- Kram
Fantasy nugget: Ball averaged 20.1 points, 7.1 assists and 3.8 made 3s in just 28.0 minutes per game last season. He also played 72 games, including 56 straight to close the season. Edwards remains Minnesota's primary scorer, but Ball should have a significant playmaking role, making him especially valuable for assists in category leagues. His second-round draft cost is risky, though, given his extensive injury history. -- Moody
What Bobby Marks is watching: All-NBA and Edwards. Last season, Edwards failed to play 65 games to qualify for All-NBA honors despite averaging the third-most points per game in the league. Edwards also missed a chance at becoming supermax-eligible. He has another in 2026-27. If Edwards plays at least 65 games and is named MVP, All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year this season, he will become eligible to sign a four-year, $304 million supermax extension next summer. The contract would keep him in a Timberwolves uniform through the 2031-32 season.
BPI first-round projection: None (Note: The Timberwolves sent Utah their 2027 first as part of the Rudy Gobert trade.
6. Boston Celtics
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 97.2% Projected wins: 51.3
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: The Jaylen Brown trade. The Celtics made a carefully considered decision to trade All-Star forward Brown to the 76ers, but the potential for that to backfire is still enormous. Just imagine the anger and outrage in Boston if the 2024 Finals MVP helps the 76ers win their first championship since 1983. While that worst-case scenario became more plausible when LeBron James joined Philadelphia on a veterans minimum contract, Boston should remain one of the East's top contenders after adding Paul George and Mitchell Robinson this summer. Jayson Tatum should be back to his All-NBA level form now that he's 18 months removed from his Achilles tear, and coach Joe Mazzulla has established a winning, high-effort culture that has delivered at least 56 wins in each of his four seasons. -- Ben Golliver
Biggest strength: 3-point shooting. Even though centers Neemias Queta and Mitchell Robinson are both non-shooters, Boston should once again boast strong spacing and an offensive system that generates a barrage of 3-point looks. After ranking fourth in 3-point attempts in 2025-26, the Celtics will likely climb even higher with Tatum and George leading the way as a high-volume shooting duo. Mazzulla's list of reliable marksmen also includes Payton Pritchard, Baylor Scheierman and Sam Hauser. -- Golliver
Biggest weakness: Free throw generation. After ranking last in free throw attempts in 2025-26, Boston must find new ways to get to the charity stripe. Its blockbuster summer trade only made this situation more dire: Brown ranked fifth leaguewide in free throw attempts last season, while George's free throw rate has dropped noticeably as he has progressed through his mid-30s. A healthy Tatum should draw more fouls than he did last season, and the Celtics would really benefit from the crafty Pritchard taking a step forward in this department. -- Golliver
Bold prediction: Robinson and Queta combine to produce the value of a top-five center. Advanced stats adore both Robinson and Queta, who score efficiently, play stalwart defense and do all the little things -- such as grab offensive rebounds and set sturdy screens -- that make them stand out in player value metrics. Neither player is an All-Star on his own, but their partnership could produce All-Star-caliber value in Mazzulla's system. -- Kram
Fantasy nugget: The Celtics had led the NBA in 3-point attempts and 3-pointers made for two straight seasons before last season, when they finished fourth in attempts and third in makes. Their drop from 48.2 3PA/game in 2024-25 to 42.1 3PA/G last season was likely influenced by the injury absence of Tatum (9.1 3PA/G for last three seasons) for most of the season with the offense built more around Brown's more midrange game (5.7 3PA/G for last three seasons). But Tatum is back full time, and Brown was traded this offseason for George (8.0 3PA/G for the last eight seasons). Expect the Celtics as a team to bounce back to the league lead in 3-pointers, with all of their fantasy contributing shooters maximizing their 3-pointers made. -- Snellings
What Bobby Marks is watching: George's future. Does a strong season by George parlay into a new contract but at a lower salary? Including his $56.6 million player option next season, Boston is $6.7 million over the luxury tax and $16 million under the first apron. An option that would boost Boston's flexibility: George declines the option and re-signs at a lesser value but with more guaranteed years.
BPI first-round projection: No. 27
7. Detroit Pistons
Schedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 93.4% Projected wins: 49.4
Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: Cade Cunningham, as usual. He elevated himself into the MVP strata last season with a career year and still has room to grow as he enters Year 6. In the playoffs, he showed his shooting can go to another level, shooting over 40% from 3 in 14 games -- which might be the last step to a complete offensive package. He believes Detroit is being overlooked in the East with all the talent upgrades in the conference but assuming health, it's hard to envision Detroit falling back to the pack if Cunningham has a similar season. -- Golliver
Biggest strength: Continuity. Losing Isaiah Stewart and Tobias Harris is no small measure, and perhaps some toughness goes out the door. But having Cunningham, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren still making strides together will do wonders while many of the newly constructed teams have to get acclimated to each other. Will they be third again in defense? Hard to say. But J.B. Bickerstaff's system on that end will still be stingy, enabling this team to use its sweat equity to win its share of games. -- Golliver
Biggest weakness: Is too much being asked of Cunningham? It was on full display during the playoffs when defenses were able to load up on him and he had some high-turnover games. The front office didn't make a bold move to rectify that, even if it didn't hurt in the regular season. Expect Duren and Thompson to take on more responsibility to initiate offense. -- Goodwill
