In the real world, confirmation bias can be a terrible thing. We seek information that confirms what we already believed, and we use it to craft a flawed or damaging worldview.
That's bad in the real world, but in the soccer world, confirmation bias can be lots of fun.
We enter a given season with all sorts of suspicions and assumptions, and we run with bold overreactions the moment reality even slightly backs them up. And sometimes we're even correct!
Each year, I come up with a list of bold predictions, heavy on quick overreactions, a couple of weeks into the soccer season, and damned if half of them don't always seem to come true. Looking back at last year's list, Arsenal indeed won the Premier League when Manchester City and Liverpool couldn't get out of their own way, Bayer Leverkusen indeed failed to finish in the Bundesliga top four, Como indeed qualified for European ball for the first time, Wolves and West Ham indeed both got relegated from the Premier League, and -- honestly the most impressive and history-defying prediction on the list -- Rangers indeed finished outside of Scotland's top two.
Sure, other predictions failed; Eintracht Frankfurt swooned instead of surging, and Villarreal's Nicolas Pépé didn't have a career year (though he did still enjoy his best season of the 2020s), but a "50% success rate was still pretty fantastic for what felt like a few reasonably bold swings.
Now it's time to step to the plate again. Based on a small handful of matchdays -- three in LaLiga, one in the Bundesliga and two in most other leagues -- let's see if confirmation bias can win the day once again!
Here are eight reasonably bold predictions based on unreasonably tiny sample sizes.
Michael Olise will win the 2027 Ballon d'Or
Olise's rise is meteoric and if he continues on this trajectory, he'll win the top individual prize next year. Marvin Ibo Guengoer - GES Sportfoto/Getty Images It's fair to assume Harry Kane will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. There could still be a surprise twist, but Kane seemed to split the difference the best between an excellent club season and strong play in the summer's World Cup. Lamine Yamal was very quiet in the latter (albeit while winning the tournament), and other potential favorites such as Rodri and Kylian Mbappé disappointed during the club season. (Well, Mbappé scored a million goals, but his team disappointed, and his refusal to defend didn't help.)
But nothing that happens from this point forward will impact that race much, so instead let's go ahead and give out next year's award!