Myles Garrett broke the single-season sack record last season, but a different edge rusher leads our 2026 sack projections.
That player? The Detroit Lions' Aidan Hutchinson, who our statistical model forecasts to rack up 12.5 sacks this season.
This is the sixth consecutive year we've run our sack forecast for veteran pass rushers based on a statistical model that uses information about a player's past performance and current circumstances to project how many sacks he will record in the upcoming season. The model's inputs include:
Sack totals and rates for each of the past two seasons Projected snaps, via ESPN's Mike Clay Pass rush win rate, which uses data from NFL Next Gen Stats Past sack rates for the quarterbacks on each player's schedule Team win totals from the betting market Where a player aligns Age Only defensive linemen and edge rushers are included, and rookies are excluded. Also, though we recently upgraded our pass rush win rate metrics, this analysis features the legacy version of that metric. Future years will incorporate the upgrades. These projections often appear low. However, they are a projection of a player's mean outcome in 2026 -- including injuries. If we could guarantee health for every player, everyone's forecast would be much higher.
Now, let's dive into the 2026 projections, looking at the top 10 forecasts, plus a few other notables (including one outside the top 50). There's also a top-50 list below.
Jump to: Projected top 10 | Full top-50 list More notable projections to watch
1. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions
Projected mean 2026 sack total: 12.5 2025 sack total: 14.5
This is the second straight year that Hutchinson leads our sack projections, despite having never actually led the league in sacks. But everything lines up for him to have a huge season.
Two years ago, he had a prolific first five games (7.5 sacks, 35% pass rush win rate) before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Last season, Hutchinson stayed healthy and delivered 14.5 sacks in 17 games. If anything, this projection might be underrating Hutchinson, because while his legacy pass rush win rate was above average, he moved up to fourth among edge rushers in the updated version.
The other big reason Hutchinson's forecast is so strong is playing time. Unlike many pass rushers, Hutchinson rarely comes off the field. He played 91% of his possible defensive snaps last season, a much higher rate than players such as Will Anderson Jr. (66%) or Nik Bonitto (62%).