Eight years after ESPN first launched its pass block and pass rush win rate statistics, they are both getting an upgrade.
Win rates held up well considering they were the first NFL player-tracking metrics that ESPN created. But we've learned a lot -- and watched a ton of Micah Parsons pass-rush wins -- in the interim and have now implemented a bit of a facelift entering the 2026 NFL season. The result? Significant improvement in stability and reliability.
ESPN sports data scientist Brian Burke explained the changes that we've made below, and analytics writer Seth Walder outlined five storylines that have surfaced with the tweaks.
Jump to: Changes | Storylines
Burke: What's different?
The metrics generally work the same as they always have. They treat the pass rush and protection with a weak-link survival systems approach. The survival aspect means time is an essential factor -- winning a block at 2.0 seconds is very different than at 4.0 seconds. The "weak-link" aspect applies to the team/unit level, meaning any single pass-block loss on a play triggers a loss for the entire unit. After all, it really doesn't matter if there are four solid blocks and one failed block -- it only takes a single successful pass rusher to dramatically affect a play.
A rusher generally triggers a win when his tracking chips are closer to the QB than those of his blocker(s). Win rates track the blocks throughout the duration of the play, creating a survival curve for any player or unit. For simplicity, we made 2.5 seconds after the snap the baseline for win rates, a reasonably representative single number that's easier to communicate than full curves at each time step. Think of win rates as a batting average for linemen.