It seems simple enough. Take a team to go over or under a projected win total. Then injuries pop up, or perhaps an unknown star emerges, changing a team's trajectory.
Seventeen NFL teams went over their totals last year, and 15 went under. The Arizona Cardinals' number heading into last season was 8.5, and they finished with just three wins. The Kansas City Chiefs, who had been to three straight Super Bowls, were set at 11.5 and won six games. The Washington Commanders won five after entering with an over/under of 9.5 wins.
NFL Win Totals
Predict OVER or UNDER for every team's win total. FREE to play. $5K in prizes! Make Your Picks
Other teams hit the over with ease. The Jacksonville Jaguars had a total of 7.5 and went 13-4. And the Denver Broncos (9.5), New England Patriots (8.5) and Seattle Seahawks (8.5) all won 14 games.
This season, nine teams projected for double-digit wins. The Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens are tied for the highest number at 11.5. The Miami Dolphins and Cardinals have the lowest at 3.5.
Which teams will hit the over and which ones will fall short of win totals in 2026? We asked our analysts to break down the odds and offer their best bets.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Football. Play the No. 1 Fantasy game for free!
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10.5 wins (+115)
Matt Bowen: I'm buying the Bengals -- and a healthy Joe Burrow -- with a revamped defensive front. Yes, Burrow's availability concerns have been an issue. But let's go back to the 2024 season, when Burrow played in all 17 games, throwing for 4,919 yards and 43 touchdowns, both of which were tops in the league. The league's best pocket thrower, Burrow has two premier targets in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, while Chase Brown is a productive starter in the backfield. Plus, with the trade for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, who still has game-changing traits, and pass-rush help, Cincy is in a position (with the third-easiest schedule) to hit the over.