NBA Summer Forecast 2026-27: Which teams will surprise or disappoint, plus biggest questions
Our expert panel predicts which teams will surprise and disappoint this season -- and answers nine other questions, including the next star to request a trade.
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Our Summer Forecast rolls on this week with the biggest on-court questions facing teams heading into the 2026-27 season.
Which teams will improve and which will decline? Who will be the first superstar considered for a trade, and which teams will be in the hunt for talent? And will we finally get a repeat champion after nine seasons?
Our NBA insiders tackled these questions and more with our latest update to the NBA Summer Forecast, including the New York Knicks' chances at making a move this season, how many points LeBron James will score per game in his first season in Philadelphia and if Draymond Green will end up somewhere else by the trade deadline.
Here are the results:
Note: Our 2026-27 NBA Summer Forecast continues Friday with reaction from league insiders on this season's forecast results.
The top three teams on this list have ambitions of making a massive leap after participating in a pillow fight for lottery positioning.
Finishing at the bottom of the standings paid dividends for the Wizards and Jazz -- who landed the top two picks and AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, respectively -- but not for the Pacers, whose pick was top-four-protected and went to the Clippers as the No. 5 selection. That pick was part of the Ivica Zubac trade, a midseason acquisition that had a lot in common with the Jazz's trade for Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Wizards' deals for Trae Young and Anthony Davis. In each instance, the teams added proven high-end starters who could be major factors in big turnarounds after sitting most or all of the remainder of the 2025-26 season.
The 76ers are the one team in this group that hopes to prove our panel wrong, as expectations have soared in Philadelphia after new president of basketball operations Mike Gansey managed to swap Paul George's bloated contract for All-NBA wing Jaylen Brown while winning the LeBron James sweepstakes, signing the all-time leading scorer on a veteran's minimum salary. But this isn't fantasy basketball. Coach Nick Nurse and the Sixers have to figure out fit and chemistry on the fly with a starting lineup that features four ball-dominant stars with All-NBA credentials and potential star VJ Edgecombe. -- Tim MacMahon
Disappointing teams: Which team will take a tumble this season?
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 32 points 2. Detroit Pistons: 27 points 3. Golden State Warriors: 26 points 4. Miami Heat: 22 points 5. Boston Celtics: 17 points
There's no more potent formula for disappointment in the NBA than the weight of expectations combined with an organizational standard for perennial championship contention.
That's the scenario facing the Lakers and Heat next season, with L.A. building out its team to fit specifically around 27-year-old superstar Luka Doncic and Miami landing its next face of the franchise: Giannis Antetokounmpo. If L.A. can't build on its last two 50-win seasons, the team's handling of LeBron James' exit will be called into question all over again. And if the Heat can't make a playoff run, the three first-round picks and young talent like Kel'el Ware included in the deal with the Milwaukee Bucks will be reexamined.
The other three teams receiving votes are dealing with only one of the two aforementioned elements. The Pistons are coming off the team's first 60-win season in 20 years, which ended with a Game 7 second-round exit on their home floor. They'll be expected to capitalize while Cade Cunningham enters into his prime. Meanwhile, a quiet offseason of activity by the Warriors could mean the volume will be turned up by a frustrated fanbase if the product doesn't resemble the dynastic teams that Stephen Curry has been a part of in the past. -- Dave McMenamin
Davis and the Wizards are essentially opening the season on a trial period. That's quite a stark contrast to the franchise's partnership with Trae Young, the other former All-Star that Washington acquired before last season's trade deadline -- and signed to a four-year, $213 million extension this summer that raised eyebrows around the league.
Davis and his agent, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul, haven't been coy about their desire for a maximum (or close to it) contract extension. That was a driving factor in Dallas' decision to trade Davis a year after he was the headliner in the return of the Luka Doncic deal, and it made finding a market for him difficult.
If Washington isn't willing to pay Davis what he wants, why would he be satisfied to stick around and attempt to help the Wizards snap a six-year playoff drought?
Irving, who played only one game alongside Davis during their short stint together as Mavericks teammates, has given no indication of a desire to leave Dallas. The Mavs have declined to engage teams that have inquired about his availability as Irving prepares to return from the knee injury that sidelined him all of last season.
But front offices across the league anticipate that one or both parties could decide it's in their best interest to part ways, wondering about the long-term fit of the 34-year-old Irving as the Mavs prioritize building around teenage prodigy Cooper Flagg.
Irving, like Davis, has a contract with a player option for the 2027-28 season. So does Durant, who had Houston as his preferred destination when the Suns decided to make him available via trade after the 2024-25 season and signed an extension well south of his max to give the Rockets financial flexibility. -- MacMahon
Will we get a different champion for the ninth straight season?
1. Yes: 19 points 2. No: five points
Some of the best teams in the NBA have an opportunity to snap the record streak of eight different champions in as many seasons, including the last three winners in New York, Oklahoma City and Boston, who could each win another title in 2026-27.
But our panel thinks it far more likely that a ninth distinct winner will emerge next season. As ESPN's Ben Golliver outlined recently, the leading candidates to do so are the San Antonio Spurs, who reached the 2026 Finals ahead of schedule; the Philadelphia 76ers, with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown adding star power; and the Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers and Cleveland Cavaliers, who have all reached the conference finals or better within the last two years. Detroit, Houston, Miami and Atlanta are also contenders to make a run next spring. -- Zach Kram
Which team is most likely to make a big move before the trade deadline?
1. Golden State Warriors: nine points 2. Detroit Pistons: four points T-3. Boston Celtics: three points T-3. Houston Rockets: three points T-5. Denver Nuggets: one point T-5. Memphis Grizzlies: one point T-5. Miami Heat: one point T-5. Sacramento Kings: one point T-5. Toronto Raptors: one point
The angst level is rising among Bay Area fans after the Warriors made no major additions via trade or free agency after just their second losing season in the past 14 years. Now that Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James have headed elsewhere, what's the plan to give Stephen Curry, who will turn 39 in March, another shot at the playoffs?
When facing similar stagnation two seasons ago, Golden State made a splashy midseason deal for Jimmy Butler that propelled a run to the second round of the playoffs. The Warriors will have a few options before the deadline in February: They could try to flip Butler's expiring contract and assets for a star or construct a more modest deal around Kristaps Porzingis. This much is clear: It will likely be another frustrating campaign if Warriors executive Mike Dunleavy Jr. doesn't do something of consequence. -- Golliver
After averaging 30.3 points per game in the 2021-22 season -- the second-best mark of his career, at age 37 -- James' scoring average has dropped four years in a row. And the biggest drop of the bunch came last season, when James lost 3.5 points per game, from 24.4 to 20.9, tied for his career worst. At the same time, he posted a career-low 27% usage rate last season.
Now a year older and playing for a new team with even more stars who need the ball, it's reasonable to expect a further decline for James in his age-42 campaign. Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown and Joel Embiid all averaged more points, and a higher usage rate, than James last year. -- Kram
Will Draymond Green finish out the season on the Warriors?
1. Yes: 21 points 2. No: three points
The NBA's two longest-tenured players with one team are Curry, who is entering his 18th season with the Warriors, and Green, who signed a one-year, $27.7 million deal to return for his 15th campaign. While their illustrious partnership won't last forever, Green's willingness to opt out this summer to aid Golden State's free agency pursuits suggests a close alignment still exists between team and player.
Green remains a high-level defender at age 36, but it's unclear whether trade suitors still view him as a player capable of putting a championship hopeful over the top. His shaky outside shooting has long required surrounding him with the right personnel, and his scoring efficiency has dipped dramatically over the last two seasons.
Green's value to Golden State as an icon and mainstay likely exceeds what the team could acquire by trading him, in part because a player with his skill set and salary only makes sense for aspiring contenders. However, that dynamic could theoretically change if the Warriors stumble out of the gate while waiting for Butler's return from an ACL injury. -- Golliver
Will the 2026-27 season be Luka Doncic's last with the Los Angeles Lakers?
1. No: 20 points 2. Yes: four points
Doncic has two years remaining on his contract beyond this season (including a player option for $57.8 million in 2028-29). The Lakers have clearly given the 27-year-old star their full backing from the moment L.A.'s president of basketball operations and general manager, Rob Pelinka, pulled off the trade with the Dallas Mavericks to land Doncic.
Even with the Lakers' ownership about to change hands from Mark Walter to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger, it's hard to imagine the organization suddenly changing directions and not continuing to build with Doncic as the center of its universe.
It's similarly unfathomable to believe that Doncic, who just footed a six-figure bill to host all of his teammates for a minicamp and camaraderie-growing retreat in Slovenia, would suddenly decide that he is done with the Lakers next summer. -- McMenamin
Will the New York Knicks make major moves before the trade deadline after a slow start?
1. No: 20 points 2. Yes: three points
Knicks owner James Dolan was pretty transparent last year about the team that was built being the one that wouldn't be looking for a big move, as well as not going into the second apron over the summer. Considering how close the Knicks still will be to that precious territory, along with the matter of Karl-Anthony Towns' extension yet to be settled, it's hard to envision them making a big-time move to tinker with a team that just ran through the playoffs to win a title.
Their big move before the deadline was adding Jose Alvarado to shore up backup point guard minutes, and it would likely be a move in that vein, unless something drastic comes about. It feels like this team will be given the chance to go for a repeat in an era where that doesn't happen very often. Also, every financial decision must be made with the reality of Jalen Brunson's possible extension -- if he signs early, he can sign for four years and $254 million. If he waits, that jumps to five years and $371 million in the 2028 offseason. -- Vincent Goodwill
Which player on a new team will have the biggest impact this season?
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 15 points 2. Kawhi Leonard: five points T-3. LeBron James: two points T-3. Jaylen Brown: two points
Antetokounmpo, 31, was the most accomplished prime-age superstar who changed teams this summer. The two-time MVP and 2021 champion will get a much-needed fresh start with the Heat after his 13-year run with the Milwaukee Bucks imploded following a string of playoff disappointments and injuries. Miami will be forced to lean heavily on Antetokounmpo because of its otherwise underwhelming summer. The Heat traded several rotation players, including Tyler Herro, to acquire Antetokounmpo, and they lost Norman Powell in free agency.
At present, they lack a high-level lead guard and sufficient shooting to support their new franchise player. Despite those roster challenges, Antetokounmpo should be highly motivated to get his career back on track after it stalled in Milwaukee. The 10-time All-Star hasn't advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs since 2022, and his injury-plagued 2025-26 campaign was the first time he didn't finish in the top five of MVP voting since 2018. -- Golliver
Which San Antonio Spurs player will have a breakout season?
1. Dylan Harper: 19 points 2. Carter Bryant: three points 3. Stephon Castle: two points
It's difficult to count out Bryant here because he's hands down the most athletic of these three -- and potentially the entire team -- and has a bright future ahead as a two-way wing on a squad teeming with young talent. But it's not quite Bryant's time. He'll continue to develop and take on a more prominent role in Year 2.
Harper, meanwhile, is expected to expand on his breakout rookie campaign. An All-Rookie first-teamer, Harper averaged 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.9 assists last season, only to crank up the production during San Antonio's NBA Finals run to 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds. It's important to note here that Harper started last season slowly because of a calf injury that kept him out for 10 games. By January he had hit the proverbial rookie wall. A year of experience will help Harper better navigate the potential pitfalls in his sophomore year. The No. 2 pick averaged 22.6 minutes as a rookie, but that number should grow this season with Harper expected to take on more responsibilities.
Having already captured NBA Rookie of the Year, Castle made strides as a shooter during his second year and ramped up scoring, rebounding and assists. If Castle cuts down the turnovers and improves similarly to last season, he could ultimately end up churning out the breakout season here, considering he's already ranked among the upper echelon at his position. -- Michael C. Wright
