NBA Summer Forecast 2026-27: Predictions for every major award
Our Summer Forecast panel reveals its predictions for all major NBA awards for the 2026-27 season.
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Which stars will be in the race for some of the NBA's most highly touted awards next season?
Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took home his second consecutive MVP award, becoming only the fifth active player to claim that honor in back-to-back seasons. Victor Wembanyama will be one of the major front-runners for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year honors after the French phenom took home the latter award unanimously.
The race for Rookie of the Year will also be one to watch with a talented wave of first-year players joining the pros, led by Washington Wizards' No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa and Utah Jazz's No. 2 selection Darryn Peterson. Unlike in recent years, there seems to be no set front-runner for this award, and how these rookies adjust to the league will be the storyline to observe.
After forecasting each team's record on Monday, plus conference and Finals predictions on Tuesday, we asked our Summer Forecast panel -- a group of NBA experts, including reporters, editors and analysts -- to rank its top three choices for the NBA's six major awards, with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.
Here are the results:
(Note: Summer Forecast continues Thursday with NBA experts answering the biggest questions heading into the 2026-27 season)
Who will win NBA MVP? 1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 102 points 2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 31 points 3. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 28 points 4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 26 points 5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami Heat: eight points
Wembanyama campaigned hard last season for the MVP award, only to finish third in voting behind Gilgeous-Alexander and three-time winner Jokic. Still, Wembanyama pushed his team deeper into the playoffs last season than either of those players did. San Antonio's run to the NBA Finals last season clearly gives Wembanyama the upper hand in the award race heading into 2026-27. Luckily for him, the tests come early, starting on opening night against Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, followed by a matchup three days later in Austin, Texas, against Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets. Wembanyama, 22, opened last season in Dallas with 40 points and 15 rebounds, and you can expect similar fireworks against the Thunder.
The surprise here is Gilgeous-Alexander, 28, sitting at fourth. He's averaged 30 points or more for four straight seasons, leading a team expected to compete for its second title in three seasons.
Jokic, 31, should be in the mix too, especially if he can elevate a Denver club that lost talent in the offseason by trading Peyton Watson. Doncic's prospects depend on how quickly the new-look Lakers come together. He's accelerated that process by hosting most of the Lakers this summer in his native Slovenia. -- Michael C. Wright
Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year? 1. Cameron Boozer, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 3 pick): 61 points 2. Darryn Peterson, Utah Jazz (No. 2 pick): 56 points 3. AJ Dybantsa, Washington Wizards (No. 1 pick): 54 points 4. Caleb Wilson, Chicago Bulls (No. 4 pick): 32 points 5. Darius Acuff Jr., Sacramento Kings (No. 7 pick): three points
The names on this list won't surprise you, but what's interesting is just how tight the predictive voting came out, with Boozer, Peterson and Dybantsa falling within an extremely narrow seven-point band in the first three slots.
These players all landed in situations that should be beneficial from an early usage and minutes standpoint, but it's Boozer who should have the biggest role of the three, with Memphis likely to orient its operation around him for the foreseeable future as it needs an offensive player who can shoulder a scoring load and connect teammates. On paper, he looks like the slight favorite.
Peterson could easily lead all rookies in scoring but will be sharing usage with Keyonte George in the backcourt, plus the Jazz have Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the developing Ace Bailey all commanding shots. Dybantsa will also have to carve out his offensive game next to Trae Young and Anthony Davis.
Although the Bulls don't figure to be overly competitive, don't rule out Wilson, who will also have a huge runway to develop into the star Chicago needs, without pressure to win games right away. -- Jeremy Woo
Victor Wembanyama became the youngest and first unanimous winner of the Defensive Player of the Year award last season. EPA/MANUELA SOLDI SHUTTERSTOCK OUT Who will win Defensive Player of the Year? 1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 108 points 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami Heat: 20 points 3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 13 points T-4. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 12 points T-4. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat: 12 points 6. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 10 points
For the foreseeable future, one simple statistic could be the primary determinant in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. How many games will Wembanyama play?
If Wembanyama hits the 65-game minimum, he's the overwhelming favorite to win this award annually. He barely reached the criteria last season -- needing the bump from the NBA Cup final appearance, which doesn't count as a regular-season game -- and was the first unanimous winner in the award's history.
It's a pretty good bet that Wembanyama will set the record for most DPOYs while he still has plenty of his prime remaining. That distinction is currently shared by his fellow Frenchman Gobert, plus Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo, who won four apiece.
Antetokounmpo, the 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year, is a curious choice as a runner-up. Maybe a move to Miami will spark a defensive renaissance for him, but his impact on that end of the floor has diminished in recent seasons. He averaged a career-low 0.7 blocks last season, and Antetokounmpo has averaged at least 1.0 steal only once in the past four years.
Holmgren was the runner-up last season and, if healthy, figures to be a perennial candidate. He's the most impactful defender on the league's best defense and the NBA's most dominant rim protector aside from Wembanyama. -- Tim MacMahon
Alex Caruso will enter his third season with the Oklahoma City Thunder and tenth season in the league next season. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) Who will win Sixth Man of the Year? 1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 34 points 2. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 23 points 3. Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder: 22 points 4. Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets: 20 points
The numbers don't entirely exhibit Caruso's value for the Thunder. Caruso can change games with his switch ability and willingness to take on big defensive assignments -- both large enough to impact and obscure the fact that he shot 29% from 3 last season. Harper, on the other hand, who averaged 11.8 points and 3.9 assists, appears ready for the next step in NBA stardom. He was one of the few Spurs who didn't seem awed by the stage of the NBA Finals as a rookie. His talent demands a starting role, so the dance could be delicate this season as the Spurs try to balance their lineups, especially if Harper can make a James Harden-like jump as many expect.
Mitchell finished high in this category's voting last season; his scoring jumped from 6.5 points per game his rookie season to 13.6 last season, and he had two strong playoff rounds before a right calf strain ended his season in the conference finals after three games. If he can continue the same momentum from last season, barring any injuries, he should be squarely in this awards race alongside his teammate.
Sheppard should benefit greatly from the return of Fred VanVleet, who missed all of last season with an ACL injury. A more off-ball role with more freedom to score will aid him in his continued development, as the Rockets will desperately need his shooting. Sheppard shot nearly 40% from 3 on seven attempts per game last season. -- Vincent Goodwill
Who will win Most Improved Player? 1. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs: 34 points 2. Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder: 32 points 3. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 21 points 4. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 20 points 5. Kel'el Ware, Milwaukee Bucks: 17 points
From Year 1 to Year 2 in the NBA, Castle improved as a shooter while increasing his scoring, rebounding, assists and shooting percentages. But the 21-year-old regressed somewhat last season with his decision-making, which led to an increase in turnovers (3.2). Castle finished 2025-26 ranked No. 9 in the NBA in turnovers. If the two-way talent corrects the miscues and makes strides as a shooter, he has got a chance to fend off some stiff competition for Most Improved Player, which includes teammate Harper. Harper is already the better shooter and commits fewer turnovers than Castle. But Harper's usage rate isn't on the same level as Castle.
Oklahoma City's Wallace figures prominently in the mix, especially if he assumes a larger role as expected. The Thunder finished with a record of 49-9 last season with Wallace in the starting lineup with a point differential of plus-11.9.
Like Castle, Thompson needs to improve as a shooter. His shooting numbers regressed last season when thrust into a more significant role due to the season-ending injury to veteran VanVleet. Thompson is one of the NBA's most elite athletes. -- Wright
Who will win Coach of the Year? 1. Rick Carlisle, Indiana Pacers: 33 points 2. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 32 points 3. Will Hardy, Utah Jazz: 28 points 4. Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves: 20 points 5. Nick Nurse, Philadelphia 76ers: 19 points
Predicting the NBA Coach of the Year is often a crapshoot. It's an award given to the coach of the team that overachieved expectations, such as the 2025-26 winner, Boston's Joe Mazzulla, who didn't even appear in the top five of the voting last season.
The unpredictability of the award is why the poll for this season was so close, and each of the top three vote-getters has vastly different preseason cases for why they could be in the mix. Carlisle navigated a nightmare season for the Pacers last year without star Tyrese Haliburton, and as a bevy of injuries hit the team from day one, leaving it without much of a chance to compete. If the Pacers rediscover their championship form without much of a hitch this year, Carlisle will be a big reason why.
The Spurs, fresh off an appearance in the NBA Finals, could be set up to dominate the league as, perhaps, the top seed in the Western Conference. Such a performance -- with perhaps a De'Aaron Fox redemption -- could put San Antonio in line to capture several postseason awards.
Or the team out of nowhere could be the Jazz, who have been quietly collecting young talent for years and added the No. 2 pick in Peterson. Despite the team's record, Hardy is still one of the most respected coaching minds around the league. -- Jamal Collier
Bonus! Who will be the scoring champion this season? 1. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 11 votes 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: five votes 3. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: three votes 4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: one vote
Winner of two of the past three NBA scoring titles, our panel has Doncic as the overwhelming favorite to become the first player with back-to-back seasons of scoring supremacy since Joel Embiid (2021-22, 2022-23).
The Lakers star averaged 33.48 points a season ago, accounting for the second-best mark of his career and the third time he's averaged north of 32 points in eight years in the league. With LeBron James and his 15.3 field goal attempts per game from a season ago relocating to Philadelphia, it will be interesting to see how many of those scoring opportunities Doncic will absorb and how high his average can go -- Harden (36.1 in 2018-19), Kobe Bryant (35.40 in 2005-06) and Michael Jordan (37.09 in 1986-87) are the only players to average more than 35 points in a season in the past 60 years. Before his season-ending hamstring injury, Doncic was nearing peak form in March, averaging 37.5 points on 49/39/79 shooting splits over 16 games.
Back-to-back MVP Gilgeous-Alexander, who was tops in scoring in 2024-25, finished second behind Doncic last season. He has topped the 30-point plateau in each of his past four seasons.
Edwards' scoring average has increased in each of his six seasons in the league, with him setting a personal best with 28.8 points a season ago. It remains to be seen how the Wolves' offense will operate with LaMelo Ball added to the mix. And Wembanyama followed up a regular season in which he averaged 25 points on a career-best 51.2% shooting with a run to the NBA Finals, but his scoring dipped slightly in the postseason to 23.8 points on 48.5%. -- Dave McMenamin
