We've reached the summer vacation portion of the 2026 NFL offseason. Teams have wrapped their OTAs and minicamps, and players, coaches and their families have dispersed to various beach resorts around the globe. They'll all be back for training camps in about a month, but for now, things are quiet around the league. And if it weren't for Brendan Sorsby and the supplemental draft, it would frankly be tough to find stuff to discuss.
But we can always step back and look at the big picture. A lot has happened this offseason, and as we look ahead to training camp and the season beyond, it's fair to wonder what effect it all will have on the race to Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles. Which offseason news or developments were mere noise, and which ones were really worth paying attention to closely?
In other words: To what, specifically, have we been overreacting? Let's size up the legitimacy of five possible overreactions from this offseason.
More overreactions from Graziano: Free agency | Draft | Schedule release
Jump to: Now or never for Burrow, Bengals? Mendoza won't start for the Raiders for a bit? McCarthy has started his last Vikings game? Pickens has one more Cowboys season? Make-or-break year for Stroud in Houston?
It's now or never for this version of Joe Burrow and the Bengals
Last season was the third year in a row that the Bengals missed the playoffs. It was also their first losing season since 2020, which was Burrow's injury-shortened rookie year. And over the three-year stretch from 2023 to 2025, Cincinnati ranked 10th in the NFL in offensive EPA and 29th in defensive EPA. The problem seems clear.
Consider that the Bengals ranked in the top 10 in defensive EPA in 2021 (when they went to the Super Bowl) and 2022 (when they went back to the AFC Championship Game and lost). When Burrow has been able to stay healthy, Cincinnati has had one of the best offenses in the NFL. But the defense has fallen off so badly since those two glory years that the team has been one of the league's biggest disappointments.