2027 NBA mock draft: Top 10 players in early race for No. 1
Let's take an early look at the 2027 NBA draft, with the top prospects to keep an eye on and where they could land. Will Tyran Stokes remain No. 1?
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With the 2026 NBA draft in the rearview and AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer & Co. off to the league, it's time to shift the focus ahead to 2027.
As for the outlook, it's still pretty cloudy right now. Basketball fans have been spoiled by the star power of the 2025 and 2026 draft classes, and NBA teams have operated with the knowledge that next year's class will present a challenge.
My assessment of the incoming freshman class reflects that. The 2027 draft is shaping up to be similar to 2024, a year in which there was no true consensus at No. 1 and teams were all over the board on how they valued talent.
This class is more indeterminate than usual at this stage of the cycle. The top of my projections is lined with incoming freshmen, albeit coming from a '26 high school class that league executives don't seem overly excited about -- yet. As expected, several prospects returned to college, thanks in part to the allure of NIL money, adding some depth to the class. This is also not viewed as a high-end international class.
The evolution of the 2027 class over the coming year will be fascinating, and every year, prospects emerge in unexpected places: Think Keaton Wagler, Allen Graves and Ebuka Okorie, none of whom began last season as part of the first-round picture in 2026.
Here's a very early look at next year's draft class, which should be viewed more like a watch list rather than a mock, as there is very little separation between these players right now, and no consensus has formed amongst NBA teams this far out.
2026 draft coverage: Grades for all 30 teams | Round 1 recap | More
Tyran Stokes opens at No. 1. Will he stay there?
The Kansas-bound forward begins the cycle atop my projections, as the player the majority of NBA scouts view as the top talent in the 2026 high school class.
A 6-foot-7 point forward, Stokes is a powerful, fluid athlete who can get into the paint on his own, play in transition and has terrific vision setting up teammates. He has the size and agility to be a good defender, and is a developing perimeter shooter. If things break correctly for him, he has All-Star potential. His ability and positional archetype help create a slight separation from the rest of the class, but he has quite a bit of work to do to set himself apart as a consensus top pick.
Stokes is not considered by scouts to be the same caliber of prospect as the consensus top four in the 2026 draft and will have much more to prove in college to ensure he hears his name called first. He is an inconsistent shooter from both the foul line and 3-point range who has struggled with turnovers and decision-making. His on-court tendencies and habits are far from NBA-ready.
2026 NBA draft coverage
• Round 1 recap | Round 2 mock draft • Draft winners, losers for all 30 teams • Dybantsa to Wizards | Peterson to Jazz • Boozer to Grizzlies | Wilson to Bulls • Johnson reunites with May, leads U-M trio • Jeremy Woo's top 100 rankings • More draft coverage
NBA executives also have concerns about Stokes' maturity and demeanor, to the point that those questions are almost impossible to extract from his evaluation. Scouts have frequently noted his on-court temper and moodiness. He is described by those who know him as competitive and intelligent, and learning to better channel that on the floor will go a long way.
Kansas coach Bill Self will be tasked with mentoring Stokes and putting him in a position to succeed over what will likely be one college season. Whether Stokes remains at No. 1 a year from now will depend largely on his ability to assuage teams' concerns. He will be under heavy scrutiny from Day 1 as teams dig deep into his background and try to make sense of his No. 1 candidacy.
If things go well, Stokes has the talent to make this an easy decision for whichever team wins the lottery. If not, the conversation could be blown wide open, with NBA executives considering nontraditional No. 1 candidates, including Jordan Smith Jr. (Arkansas) and Caleb Holt (Arizona) as other top names to watch.
New lottery rules take hold
Next year's draft will be the first to take place under the NBA's new lottery rules, which were officially announced in May.
In a nutshell, the new "3-2-1" system drastically flattens the odds, reduces the worst three teams' chances at winning the top spot and opens the lottery up to include 16 teams, inclusive of the play-in spots. No team's pick will be allowed to land in the top five in three consecutive drafts, nor can a team win the lottery two years in a row.
The NBA Board of Governors today approved a new NBA Draft Lottery system designed to eliminate incentives for teams to prioritize their position in the Draft over winning games. Full release: https://t.co/I42k5HeUV0 Additional information regarding the new system, including the... pic.twitter.com/o1QItNPIit
This system will be in place for at least the next three drafts, through 2029, a year in which the NBA and its players' association will hold a mutual CBA opt-out clause. How these changes impact teams' overall behavior next season will be a fascinating NBA subplot: While there will surely still be bad teams, there is no longer an incentive for those teams to intentionally lose games to increase their lottery odds.
The most important piece to understand from a franchise's strategy perspective is that teams, in essence, no longer hold any real control over where their picks will fall. Relying on lottery luck as the primary path to landing a young star player is even more of a fool's errand.
It is interesting to see the inception of these rules take place as NBA teams stare down what presently appears to be an extraordinarily flat talent curve in the 2027 draft class and no consensus No. 1 prospects -- similar to 2013 and 2024.
Which returners will emerge?
NIL continues to alter the draft landscape by making college basketball a more financially lucrative option, a trend NBA teams expect to continue, barring major NCAA changes.
The top-ranked returners on our board are Braylon Mullins (UConn) and Thomas Haugh (Florida), who ranked 17th and 13th, respectively, on my 2026 top 100 before deciding to stay in school and not test the draft. With NBA scouts presently not all that impressed with the rising high school class, there is room for college veterans to push their way into the first round.
Notable potential first-round returners to watch include Motiejus Krivas (Arizona), Alex Condon (Florida), Dame Sarr (Duke), Matt Able (North Carolina), Amari Allen (Alabama), Ivan Kharchenkov (Arizona), Juke Harris (Tennessee), Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt), Patrick Ngongba II (Duke), Malachi Moreno (Kentucky), Trey McKenney (Michigan), Tounde Yessoufou (St. John's) and Milan Momcilovic (Kentucky).
Still, the financial landscape makes it probable that some of these players end up staying in college even longer and don't end up in the 2027 draft at all.
The 2027 NBA draft is headlined with top prospects and returners such as Kansas commit Tyran Stokes and UConn's Braylon Mullins. ESPN
2027 NBA mock draft: Top 10 picks
Note: This projected order is based on DraftKings Sportsbook's odds to win the 2027 title, with the teams with the worst odds ranked below. The new lottery system will drastically change projections for mock drafts, with the order more randomized than previous years. ESPN will do a projection based on the new lottery system on its next 2027 mock draft.
Stokes has the all-around skill set to make the No. 1 spot firmly his, but the door is open for other players to make their case.
After checking in on Stokes in various settings over the past year -- including last summer's Nike Academy, McDonald's All American week and Hoop Summit -- it's clear his size, skill and vision separate him from his peers. The question is whether his production and winning impact at Kansas will back up the eye test, with his long-range shooting, ability to limit turnovers and defensive engagement all areas for improvement.
Whether Stokes lives up to billing in college -- and whether he can assuage concerns around his maturity and behavior -- will determine if he can stay the course at the top.
2. Chicago Bulls
Jordan Smith Jr., PG/SG, 6-2 | Age: 18.8 Freshman, Arkansas
Smith is an explosive, high-energy guard who can get downhill in a hurry and excels at disrupting plays on the defensive end. He appears ticketed for plenty of point guard minutes at Arkansas, and how he handles that responsibility will determine whether he can make a real No. 1 case.
NBA teams already love Smith's competitiveness, intangibles and two-way impact, a mix of strengths that made him arguably the best player in high school basketball last season. The concerns: He's an inconsistent 3-point shooter and has a smaller frame that will play up best on the ball, despite being more of a natural scorer than a setup man.
Scouts will be closely watching how Smith handles a heavy offensive workload at Arkansas. If he can expand his game as a playmaker and efficiently transition to the college game, it will help his standing significantly. Whether or not he can make the star leap with usage, he's still likely to have a long NBA career.
Holt may have the highest floor of any player in the incoming freshman class. He is a hard-nosed, physical perimeter player who contributes in all areas of the box score, plays a tenacious style and has developed his guard skills. He has the size and length to guard multiple positions, rebounds well and brings energy.
Although Holt isn't a true point guard and is still developing as a shooter, there's a lot to be enthusiastic about, with scouts wondering if he can follow a Jrue Holiday-esque blueprint. He is ready to make an impact in college and should slot in immediately to help replace Brayden Burries' minutes at Arizona.
Holt's archetype as a utility combo guard would make him a nontraditional No. 1 candidate if he breaks out. But he's an easy player to like and should be in line for a strong freshman season.
Branch has all the tools to be an excellent NBA player, with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and an excellent frame with room to add muscle. He's a capable shooter from range but is still developing as an all-around scorer. When fully engaged defensively, his size, length and lateral agility make him extremely difficult to score on.
While Branch ticks a lot of boxes for a prototypical wing, scouts want to see him assert himself more, as he tends to float through games. It would be unfair to place AJ Dybantsa-level expectations on him at BYU, but if coach Kevin Young can get the most out of him, Branch should make a strong top-five case.
5. New Orleans Pelicans
Stefan Joksimovic, PG, 6-7, Age: 17.6 Baskonia (Spain)
Joksimovic was one of the buzziest names coming out of Eurocamp in Treviso earlier this month, winning MVP of the event and gaining traction for next year's lottery. A large playmaker with great pace and vision, the Slovenian guard drew interest from college teams but will stay in Spain next season.
Scouts love Joksimovic's creativity as a ballhandler and passer, and he changes speeds well for his size (he reportedly measured 6-7 barefoot in Treviso), giving him upside as a lead playmaker as he gets stronger. In a wide-open draft, NBA teams say he is a name to watch closely.
Mullins didn't quite have the freshman season he wanted at UConn -- he averaged 12.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game -- but his NCAA tournament heroics gave him renewed momentum going into an important summer. NBA teams think he's capable of a breakout season and should improve on last season's 42% from the field and 33% from 3, stepping into a more focal role on a team that uses shooters well. He would have been a first-round pick had he stayed in the 2026 draft.
To hear his name called in the top 10, Mullins has to take a step forward as an all-around offensive player. Teams like his makeup, size and skill set, but he will need to prove he's more than just a shooting specialist to justify being placed this high on the board. He has shown major shotmaking prowess in various settings over the years, and he has a good opportunity to put it all together.
Haugh had late-lottery interest this year but opted to return to Florida, where he will be handsomely compensated. He'll be 24 years old by the time he gets drafted next year-- leaving room for younger players to leapfrog him as the cycle goes on ---- but projects as a ready-made NBA rotation player.
Haugh's size, versatility and nonstop motor give him a strong role player profile that should again have broad appeal with NBA teams. Improving on his 32.6% 3-point clip will be important for him to keep a spot in the lottery, but he does multiple valuable things well.
8. Charlotte Hornets (via Dallas)
Jason Crowe Jr., PG/SG, 6-3 | Age: 17.9 Freshman, Missouri
Crowe is a gifted scorer who can create his own shot off the bounce and put up points quickly. His instincts for getting to spots and scoring off the bounce are terrific, and he's comfortable attacking every level of the defense. He joins a Missouri team that will be geared around him as its offensive engine, giving him a platform to make a case for the top five.
NBA teams question what level of passer Crowe will be and his impact on defense, as he sometimes has bouts of tunnel vision scoring the ball and isn't a pure point guard. But his offensive gifts are clear, making him a talent to watch as a potential high-impact freshman.
9. Washington Wizards
Anthony Thompson, SF/PF, 6-9 | Age: 17.9 Freshman, Ohio State
Thompson is an excellent shooter with great size and length who can man either forward spot, fitting a valuable long-term NBA mold. Scouts want to see greater consistency and improved motor -- he missed the cut at Team USA's U18 trials in May -- but the demand for shooters with size keeps him front of mind as a player to watch in the fall.
Thompson is a good defensive playmaker who can cover ground and block shots with his length and anticipation. He's a bit stiff in his hips, limiting his ability to put the ball on the floor and create for himself. What type of season he puts together at Ohio State will dictate how high he can rise.
10. Houston Rockets (via Phoenix)
Cameron Williams, F/C, 6-11 | Age: 18.7 Freshman, Duke
Williams has big-time tools and developing skill potential, but it's unclear just how big his role will be at Duke. He will presumably be battling for minutes with the prodigious Joaquim Boumtje, a late addition for the Blue Devils who might contend for the No. 1 spot in the 2028 draft.
Williams is a good athlete who runs the floor well and has become a better shooter over the past year, with enough agility to play the 4 in lieu of ideal bulk to play center. There is a wide range of long-term outcomes depending on how his body and skill set fill out, but he has the type of intriguing long-term upside to keep him in the lottery conversation, provided he can carve out a big enough role to make a difference.
