Bad breaks happen in fantasy football. Be it bad luck, bad circumstances or bad aches, not every player will meet your expectations.
In 2025, eight of the top 25 players in preseason average draft position (ADP) finished with a fantasy point total at least 25% lower than projected. In 2024, six of the top 25 picks experienced similar statistical underperformance.
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But circumstances that caused a player to disappoint one year often boomerang the next, making that player a draft-day value. Fantasy football managers can be overly reactionary, fearful of last season's busts, and that's how Christian McCaffrey wound up as a steal with an ADP of 7.2 last season.
McCaffrey was one of three 2024 busts (also Travis Etienne Jr. and Chris Olave) who completely rebounded in 2025 and scored even more points last season than what was expected from them in 2024.
So who might be 2026's McCaffrey, Etienne or Olave? Let's make the call on last season's biggest busts: Was it simply a bad season, which strengthens his rebound case for this year, or a bad sign of things to come?
Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: A year after setting the rookie tight end record for fantasy points, Bowers battled knee issues that cost him five games and made him markedly inconsistent (37% of his production came in two games). While a Fernando Mendoza/Kirk Cousins quarterback partnership won't fuel bounce-back excitement, better health alone would restore Bowers' front-line status. His catch rate (73.6%), yards per route (1.84) and average depth of target (6.8 yards) were all in line with his rookie-year numbers (73.6%, 2.15 and 6.1). Make sure you're paying attention to his progress during the preseason, but... Verdict: Bad season.
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Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers: Between the fractured ankle that cost him seven games and the Chargers' offensive line issues, Hampton couldn't capture any momentum during his rookie season. He did, however, finish with three 20-point fantasy performances in nine games and 15.1 fantasy points per game. The Chargers added center Tyler Biadasz and should get healthier seasons from offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Plus, Mike McDaniel's installation as offensive coordinator could do wonders for their offense (and Hampton's receiving usage). There's legitimate fantasy RB1 breakthrough potential here. Verdict: Bad season.