Man City Keep or Dump: Who should stay post-Guardiola?
How should Manchester City approach key decisions ahead of their first season without Pep Guardiola in a decade? Gab Marcotti and Mark Ogden break it down.
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Manchester City are at a crossroads. The departures of Pep Guardiola, Bernardo Silva and John Stones mean 29 cumulative seasons of success and institutional memory are gone. Throw in Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gündogan, Éderson, Manuel Akanji and director of football Txiki Begiristain -- all of whom left last summer -- and it's pretty evident this is a club in transition.
Some big calls lie ahead, and here, Mark Ogden and Gabriele Marcotti sift through the questions the club will be facing.
This is the fifth in this year's Keep or Dump series, which examines the most pressing questions facing the Premier League and Europe's biggest clubs in the summer transfer window. Previous teams: Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea.
- Dawson: Premier League, Man City won't be the same after Guardiola - Ogden: Premier League giants hit managerial reset button, but who will capitalize? - Connelly: Premier League 2025-26 awards: Best game, worst transfer, best XI
1. After a decade of success, Guardiola is gone. What is the outlook for his successor? And is it possible that his departure isn't a bad thing?
Nobody is going to judge Guardiola's successor against him, because he's one of the greatest ever, but whoever comes next will be a downgrade. That's inevitable. But we don't think it is going to be a comparable situation to when Sir Alex Ferguson left Manchester United in 2013 and the bottom dropped out, sending them on a doom loop.
Unlike United, City have prepared for the succession. Players and personnel started moving out and being replaced when Guardiola was still here. And, of course, the guy City want -- Enzo Maresca -- is as good a fit as possible. He knows the club as he was Guardiola's assistant when they won the treble, he knows the people involved, and he has Premier League experience at another big club (Chelsea) where he won silverware. It's not a guarantee of success, but it means he'll be a safe pair of hands in the transition.
As for the second question, the way City's title challenge fizzled out at Bournemouth and the horrible first half of the previous season were pretty ugly. Maybe Guardiola was being honest when he said he needed a break and had given everything he had to give. If that's the case, then it's not a bad thing that we're moving on.
ESPN Illustration 2. City still have the 115 charges (actually, 130 charges) against them and are waiting for a verdict. What can they do to protect themselves? City have been adamant that they're not guilty, and this case has taken so long that they can't be sure the independent panel will acquit them. A heavy fine, a points penalty, and even relegation or expulsion remains a possibility.
City's approach has been to conduct business as usual -- witness the 10-year contract extension that striker Erling Haaland signed shortly after the hearing ended. We don't think there's much else they can do, and certainly, the risks involved haven't stopped them from attracting players.
In some ways, the fact that it is taking so long might actually work to City's advantage, in the sense that the most serious charges run from 2009-10 to 2017-18. (The others are accusations of failing cooperate with the investigation, and they run through February 2023.) None of their current players were signed in that era, and the coaching staff is mostly different.
Most of City's executives have changed too, with the obvious exception of chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak and chief executive Ferran Soriano. Of course, if we're found guilty the buck will stop with them. But most of the rest will be tarnished, hopefully, to a far lesser degree. And, of course, City hope they won't be found guilty as they've always maintained their innocence.
3. Rodri's contract is up in 2027. Do City need to extend him, or should they look for a replacement and let him leave on a free transfer?
Rodri won the Ballon d'Or in 2024 but missed an entire season through injury, and he turns 30 in June. Mark reckons Rodri has interest from Real Madrid, and this is a good summer to turn the page. He can no longer be relied upon to be fit enough to play when City need him to play, so moving him on is both a financial and sporting reality.
Gab isn't so sure about the interest in Rodri, given his salary and the fact that he's a year from free agency. Maybe he'll have a monster World Cup for Spain and City will be inundated with offers, but that's unlikely. City do need to find a successor, and it's not going to be Nico González. Given what Rodri has done for the club, Gab is OK with extending him a season if he wants it, but also with letting him go for free in a year. He can be a stabilizing force for the new coach.
We both really like Nottingham Forest's Elliot Anderson and Mark reckons he can be Rodri's replacement, with a first bid rejected; Gab thinks Anderson's profile is somewhat different, and while he'd be an outstanding signing, he might not be suited to the Rodri role.
In fact, City should try to move Ake and Grealish on. There would be interest in Aké and, given his limited opportunities next season, he might welcome a move, though the club couldn't expect much in terms of transfer fee.
Grealish was doing well at Everton on loan before his injury, but he'll need to prove his fitness before he can think of a move. Hopefully he'll get a chance to do that in preseason, and City can find him a club before the window closes. Or, since Maresca (assuming he's appointed) reportedly likes him and he offers a different profile from our other wingers, maybe he can stick around and contribute.
City should keep Kovacic around (but there's no need to extend him) just for his experience, especially if Rodri leaves.
5. Josko Gvardiol has been exceptional but missed a big chunk of last season through injury, and his contract ends in 2028. Should City extend him?
Moving Aké -- whom City don't really need even though he can back up the left-back position, since Gvardiol does that too -- reduces the number, and the three youngsters can go on loan again. But after City added Marc Guéhi in January and Abdukodir Khusanov emerged as an excellent central defender, along with Rúben Dias, there's still the issue of having four top central defenders of this quality (and with this level of wages).
It's also worth bearing in mind that City also had a number of young center backs out on loan last year: Juma Bah, Vitor Reis and Max Alleyne. A lot here will depend on the new manager, whether it's Maresca or someone else.
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Mark is more relaxed about this, but Gab thinks it's important to get clarity early on, not least because the players themselves will demand it. If the plan is to continue with attacking full backs such as Nico O'Reilly, Matheus Nunes or Rayan Aït-Nouri, they need to make a tough decision. Maybe shifting one of the center backs makes more sense, and the fourth option can then be one of the youngsters. Maybe the plan is for a back three and this becomes less of an issue, or maybe Khusanov and Gvardiol play full back. Regardless, it needs to be sorted out. And Gab feels City should either extend Gvardiol or move him on.
6. City have a host of other players whose deals are up in 2028: Nunes, Jérémy Doku, Rico Lewis and Kalvin Phillips. What should they do?
Doku deserves a new deal this summer, while City can probably bide their time a little with Nunes and see if he has as large a role with the new boss as he did with Guardiola. Phillips, presumably, will have to go on loan again: at this stage his wages make him impossible to shift.
As for Lewis, he made an impact two years ago but didn't play much last season. Mark thinks City should shift him: As a young homegrown player with international experience and relatively low wages, it should be easy to do. Gab likes Lewis' versatility and reckons the first thing to do is to figure out whether this past season was just a blip and what the new manager wants to do with him. If he's going to have a limited role, it's best to transfer him out, but they can wait until August to do that.
7. Phil Foden lost his way a little bit in the past two seasons but received a long-term extension. With Bernardo Silva now gone, and considering Rodri's situation, how do City rebuild this midfield?
Silva was something of a unicorn -- City are not going to find a direct replacement who combines his quality, tactical nous and leadership. Mark is more optimistic: There was no direct replacement for De Bruyne either, but the game and the squad evolves all the time, so this shouldn't be an issue. Rayan Cherki started well and covers the loss of Bernardo's attacking qualities, so no concerns there.
Gab is more skeptical and thinks this needs to be looked at holistically, starting with the formation. He loves Cherki, but specifically as the No. 10 in a 4-2-3-1. So where does Foden fit? Can Foden play deeper, in the Silva role? Is he the alternative to Cherki? Or will he end up in a wide role? There are a ton of questions.
If 4-2-3-1 is going to be the base formation, Gab would like someone other than Foden, Kovacic and Tijjani Reijnders to play next to Rodri, who can't cover as much ground as he used to. Securing a top central midfielder has to be a priority.
8. Should City consider moving on one of their goalkeepers, James Trafford or Gianluigi Donnarumma?
City genuinely thought Trafford was going to be their long-term goalkeeper, which is why they spent £27 million to bring him back. But then they had the chance to get Donnarumma, and they had to take it, because opportunities like that don't come very often.
