Since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002, more than two dozen teams have gone from worst in their division standings to ranked first in the following season. Just last season, the Patriots went from last place in the AFC East all the way to the Super Bowl, and the Bears won the NFC North a season after they finished last.
Who's next? We've gone through the eight teams that finished in last place in each division after the 2025 season and ranked them by their odds of suddenly winning their divisions in 2026. (One year ago, the Bears and Patriots were ranked second and third on this list, respectively.)
These odds are via ESPN's Football Power Index. FPI's overall predictive ratings combine win totals from the betting market along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. There are clear indicators that help guide us as to which teams are most likely to go from worst to first. But remember that sometimes teams will change and develop in ways we can't foresee and take an unexpected big step forward. For example, the Texans went from 3-13-1 in 2023 to first place the following season, partly thanks QB C.J. Stroud's rookie season, which far exceeded expectations. If Fernando Mendoza has a similar rookie season, we might be seeing the Raiders in first place in 2026.
For now, we'll start with a team that went the opposite direction -- from first to worst -- in its division over the past two seasons.
Jump to the last-place team for... NFC: East | North | South | West AFC: East | North | South | West
1. Detroit Lions
2025 record: 9-8
Odds of winning division: 38.2% (first in division) Odds of making playoffs: 68.4% (sixth in NFL)
The Lions have by far the best odds to go from worst to first, for three main reasons: schedule, injuries and the fact that they weren't really that bad last season. Of course, this is exactly what I wrote about the 49ers a year ago, so there certainly are no guarantees.