CINCINNATI -- Health and defense.
Those are typically the two most important factors that will determine the Cincinnati Bengals' success -- with 2026 potentially being a make-or-break season for the franchise.
But there's another factor perhaps camouflaged by names and salaries: the offense.
Even when quarterback Joe Burrow -- who missed nine games -- was healthy last season, Cincinnati's offense did not look like one of the most high-powered and expensive groups in the NFL. And Burrow is as aware as anyone that becoming a playoff contender again starts with becoming a better offense, particularly on first downs.
"There's no secret that the last several years go the way we wanted to, and there's a lot of blame to go around for that -- myself included," Burrow said last week.
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When Burrow has been an MVP finalist (2022 and 2024), he has been one of the league's most efficient and productive passers on first downs, when the down and distance isn't generally tilted toward the offense or defense.
But in those neutral situations last season, Burrow's numbers dipped significantly. Among quarterbacks who had at least 100 dropbacks in 2025, Burrow had a league-worst EPA of minus-11.4 on first downs, according to ESPN Research.
Much of that was skewed by one of Cincinnati's biggest issues last season -- defensive touchdowns. Burrow was the only player last season to have multiple first-down dropbacks result in defensive touchdowns. Two were on interceptions (Week 14 against Buffalo, Week 18 against Cleveland) and another was on a lost fumble (Week 18 against Cleveland).
While EPA can provide deeper insights on how plays impacted a game, success rate (whether a play had a positive or negative EPA) can be a better indicator of play-to-play consistency.
There, Burrow rated much higher (14th) among qualifying quarterbacks. But when Burrow was an MVP finalist, he was significantly better on first downs. In those seasons, he ranked fifth and third, respectively.
Burrow's QBR on first downs
Speaking to ESPN this week, Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said the team looks at EPA and success rate when evaluating the team in the offseason. And the numbers are clear.