The Seahawks and Patriots played in Super Bowl LX nearly four months ago, but they aren't seen as the two best teams entering the 2026 NFL season.
That's the take from ESPN's Football Power Index, which launched its initial preseason ratings, rankings and projections Wednesday. The Seahawks and Patriots rank fourth and 14th in FPI, respectively, entering 2026, with New England becoming the first team in the metric's history (since 2015) to be slated outside the top 10 of the initial rankings after making the Super Bowl.
FPI's preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.
During the season, ratings updates are based on each team's performance on offense, defense and special teams -- adjusting for quality of opponent -- along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.
But we'll deal with that once the season starts. It's the offseason, so let's dive into our preseason, probabilistic crystal ball for the 2026 campaign. Here are some big takeaways from the set of projections.
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The Rams -- not the Seahawks -- are the preseason favorites
Seattle bested the Rams in the NFC West and in the NFC Championship Game last season, but FPI believes the Rams are the team to beat in 2026.
ESPN The explanation is straightforward -- offense is more stable year-to-year than defense. And Seattle's Super Bowl run was clearly fueled by an elite defense. Even though most of the unit (and the Seattle team as a whole) is back, regression is expected even if we don't know the exact source of it.
This can be seen in the team ratings. At the end of last season, the Seahawks had a defensive FPI rating of 4.6, meaning theirs was worth 4.6 points per game relative to an average team. Now? It's 2.1. Keep in mind that the current defensive rating is still the highest in the league. But it also represents a hefty drop in confidence to how FPI felt about that unit in the Super Bowl, because there are just so many more unknowns entering a new season.