Manchester City are running hot. They have hit top gear and have the momentum. They are course and distance specialists. So, they will win the Premier League title, right?
Not so fast. Arsenal have blown a big lead and might look emotionally jaded, but the chance is still there for them to end a 22-year wait to be crowned champions for the first time since Arsene Wenger's "Invincibles." Now it is a sprint to the finish line.
The Gunners, runners-up for the past three years, have to free themselves from the apparent mental block that stands between them and their holy grail. Manager Mikel Arteta is preaching a message of "No Fear, More Fire" to players and fans, many of whom seem to have been overcome with a collective neurosis and fatalistic feeling about the task in hand. It feels like they expect the worst.
Arsenal had the chance to go 12 points clear when they faced Bournemouth at home on April 11. Instead, they got what Arteta called "a punch in the face" in a listless 2-1 defeat. That gave City an opening, and they barged the door open by winning the crunch game between the title rivals.
Now, as that brilliant TV commentator Brian Moore famously said, "It's all up for grabs."
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City, of course, have been champions in six of the past eight seasons, and Pep Guardiola is so relaxed -- on the surface, at least -- that he sent his players on a four-day break this week, even reaching a fourth successive FA Cup final using a second-string team. "Go away. Do what you like. Just be back here by Wednesday afternoon for training," was Pep's message to the players. He says he now realizes that rest and relaxation can be more beneficial than another hard session at this late stage of the season. Less is more.
The break is another factor in City's favor. Their stars have been putting their feet up while Arsenal have been in an intense Champions League semifinal tussle with Atletico Madrid, with no such thing as an easy game against Diego Simeone's team. That said, the way the remaining fixtures fall might just give Arsenal an edge.
Arsenal will go six points clear if they can beat Fulham at home this weekend, albeit City will then have two games in hand. In an ideal world, the Gunners will not only win, but also start to find a more fluent rhythm than they did in scraping home against Newcastle last week.