NBA playoffs 2026: Previewing all 20 teams still vying for the title
Everything you need to know for the Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, Celtics and 16 other teams chasing the 2026 NBA title.
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The 2026 NBA postseason is officially here.
The final week of regular-season play ended Sunday as all 30 teams were in action to cap the 82-game campaign. Some top seeds sweetened an already dominant run, while bottom-dwelling teams completed their last efforts to tank for the May 10 draft lottery.
Now, there are officially 20 teams set and seeded to compete for a chance to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June. The play-in tournament begins Tuesday, as four teams from each conference face off for the last two spots in the playoffs to play against the No. 1 and 2 seeds.
Our NBA insiders break down all 20 postseason-bound teams, their first-round and play-in matchups, biggest questions and key players to watch throughout the run to the 2026 Finals.
Note: Odds for 2026 NBA playoffs provided by DraftKings.
Jump to a team: ATL | BOS | CHA | CLE | DEN DET | GS | HOU | LAC | LAL MIA | MIN | NYK | OKC | ORL PHI | PHX | POR | SA | TOR Playoff bracket, schedule, news
Which NBA superstars will battle in the 2026 Finals? The journey begins on Tuesday. ESPN Eastern Conference
1. Detroit Pistons (60-22)
Round 1 matchup: No. 8 seed BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 38.6% NBA title odds: +2200
What to watch for in Round 1:
One of the best seasons in franchise history was powered by the kind of defense, intensity and physicality that have been calling cards of nearly every great Detroit team. But will the East's top seed generate enough offense to reach its first Finals since 2005? Cade Cunningham has realized his potential as the 2021 No. 1 draft pick, but the options behind him are largely unproven. Whoever emerges from the play-in tournament with the 8-seed will test the Pistons to keep up on the scoreboard. -- Jamal Collier
1. Detroit Pistons
One big question for the postseason:
Is Cunningham fully healthy? The Pistons didn't miss a beat near the end of the regular season, wrapping up the best record in the conference without their star player. Cunningham shook off some rust with two games last week, but the chances of a deep playoff run hinge on how he bounces back from a collapsed lung. Despite falling short of the 65-game threshold, Cunningham was one of the best players in the league this season and looked like a lock for All-NBA. Detroit needs Cunningham at that level. -- Collier
Player who can swing the first round:
Cunningham. I looked at how much teams would fall if they were without their best player, and the Pistons would drop only to fourth. But a top player returning after injury has a chance of clunkiness. The Pistons got Cunningham back from a collapsed lung last Wednesday in a game against a tanking team, and he played well. But tankers won't be the test. When the Pistons face a team in lockdown defense mode, that's when Cunningham must avoid forcing things and keep defending on the other end. -- Dean Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They reach the second round. It would seem as if a conference finals appearance would be the minimum goal, but it's important to note that this team is just two seasons removed from a disastrous 14-win campaign. In 2024, the Thunder tied for the best record in the West with 57 wins, only to get knocked out by the Mavericks in the conference semis. Detroit chose not to make any major swings at the trade deadline, in part due to not wanting to skip steps or place the burden of title expectations on a rising young team. -- Vincent Goodwill
Betting nugget: The Pistons posted a +9.5 net rating over an 11-game stretch without Cunningham during the final month of the season, barely down from +10.9 with him. Their offense dipped from 119.7 to 108.5 per 100 possessions without him, but still averaged 115.8 during that span, while the defense improved. The Pistons' ability to sustain elite efficiency without their star reinforces their legitimacy as a contender. At the fourth-best odds to win the East (+500) and seventh-best to win the championship (+2200), the market may still be undervaluing them. -- Eric Moody
<!-- Stat to know: The Pistons finished the regular season with 10 players averaging seven-plus points per game. That's tied with the 1962-63 Syracuse Nationals for the most in NBA history.
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2. Boston Celtics (56-26)
Round 1 matchup: No. 7 seed BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 29.2% NBA title odds: +550
What to watch for in Round 1:
How will Boston's center rotation fare? Neemias Queta and Luka Garza have never been relied upon to be significant postseason contributors, and veteran Nikola Vucevic has never played past the first round. If Boston is to make the deep playoff run it expects, this frontcourt group will be tested. -- Tim Bontemps
2. Boston Celtics
One big question for the postseason:
What will Jayson Tatum look like? It has already been a remarkable comeback for him to be playing less than a year after tearing an Achilles -- and quickly winning a conference Player of the Week award, to boot. But for Boston to be a true title threat, Tatum will need to return to something closer to his pre-injury form. -- Bontemps
Player who can swing the first round:
Payton Pritchard. The Celtics are a machine that adapts to what the opponent does, but if there's a player whose performance can be volatile, it's Pritchard. He has been among the 30 most inconsistent players this season, posting 23 good games and 17 bad ones (plus 37 average efforts). If the Celtics face the ferocious starting unit in Charlotte, they can't afford a Pritchard stinker: Boston's biggest loss of the season was to the Hornets on March 4, when Pritchard had his worst game. -- Dean Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They reach the conference finals. In some ways, Tatum's return has Boston playing with house money. He came back sooner than expected and looks like a reasonable version of himself while swapping lead positions with MVP contender Jaylen Brown. Getting knocked out in the second round last season as defending champions, and then being able to come back and advance to top-two status in what was thought to be a "gap year" would constitute a massive win for the franchise. But going further is always on the board in the East. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The Celtics allowed 39.8 points per game in the paint -- the fewest in a season since the 2019-20 Bucks (38.7).
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Betting nugget: Defense wins championships: Twenty-two of the last 25 champions ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating during the regular season. The Celtics rank second in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. That's notable, as 23 of the last 25 champions finished top five in either offensive or defensive efficiency. With Tatum and Brown leading the way, Boston has the profile of a true contender on both ends of the floor and presents value at +550 to win the championship. -- Moody
3. New York Knicks (53-29)
Round 1 matchup: Atlanta Hawks BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 18.5% NBA title odds: +1800
What to watch for in Round 1:
Whether the Knicks can take care of business early and get enough rest for a potential rematch with the Celtics. That would mean Jalen Brunson continuing the trend of trusting his teammates such as Josh Hart and, more importantly, Karl-Anthony Towns. Everything the Knicks have done since last season ended has been about leading to this moment. Firing Tom Thibodeau. Hiring Mike Brown. Not going all-in with a trade offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Treating the first round with the appropriate seriousness after having lulls in concentration this season would show that those decisions were worth it -- for now. -- Goodwill
3. New York Knicks
One big question for the postseason:
Can Towns be the true second option New York needs? He has had a more productive second half of the season but has needed to find his offense off the glass rather than getting everything run through him. Towns and Brunson have found chemistry lately, but the pressure is greater on Towns than on any star-level player this postseason. -- Goodwill
Player who can swing the first round:
Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have been very good against bad teams and middling against good teams. Who declines the most? It's Robinson, and it's on both sides of the ball. The good defenses defend him well, and they are also willing to foul him and put him on the line, where his sub-50% mark means "hack-a-Mitchell" is in play from tipoff. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They reach the NBA Finals. If it weren't obvious, Knicks owner James Dolan laid out the gauntlet on New York radio in January. Making the conference finals was just good enough to get Thibodeau fired. Beating Boston, Detroit, Cleveland or anyone else is the bare minimum. The Knicks were built to win this season, and there could be consequences on some level if they came up short again. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The Knicks have a plus-10.6 PPG differential at home this season, second in the NBA behind the Thunder (12.9).
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Betting nugget: The odds imply the Knicks have the edge in this series against the Hawks, which makes sense given their size and rebounding advantage with Towns and Robinson. While New York's 3-point volume and efficiency have dipped recently, they still ranked in the top five in percentage on the season. With two of three regular-season meetings decided by three points, the Knicks' physicality could be the difference in what projects as a competitive series, making the over 5.5 games (-150) worth consideration. -- Moody
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)
Round 1 matchup: Toronto Raptors BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 5.1% NBA title odds: +1600
What to watch for in Round 1:
This Cavs team will arguably provide James Harden his best chance to redeem his previous playoff disappointments, and the opening round will be the first window into how he handles it. Harden's career of playoff shortcomings will not be assuaged no matter whom Cleveland plays in the opening series, but it'll be the first opportunity to see this team under real pressure. How will Harden operate on a team for which he doesn't have to handle much of the scoring burden, and how will he and Donovan Mitchell work on the floor together, especially at the end of games? -- Collier
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
One big question for the postseason:
Did the Cavs' big four have enough time to jell? Thanks to a combination of ill-timed injuries, the quartet of Mitchell, Harden, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen entered the final week of the regular season having played six games and 76 total minutes together. The good news for the Cavs is that they are outscoring opponents by 35 points during those minutes, but it's a small sample for Cleveland's best players before they have to win on a playoff stage. -- Collier
Player who can swing the first round:
Harden. The key for Cleveland is the counter to Mitchell, who dictates winning and losing so much for the Cavs that when he's down, the whole team is down. When the Cavs lost in the second round last year, he had a couple of bad games and his teammates couldn't pick him up. Their key player in this postseason could be Harden, Allen or Mobley, but they need one of them to provide that counter. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They reach the conference finals. The Cavaliers haven't made it that far without LeBron James since 1992, and current franchise star Mitchell has never advanced past the second round. Acquiring Harden before the trade deadline only heightened expectations. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The Cavaliers had 14 wins this season when they trailed entering the fourth quarter -- the most by any team.
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Betting nugget: The Cavaliers are 20-6 since acquiring Harden, who has averaged 20.5 PPG and 7.7 APG with the Cavs while helping elevate them to fifth in offensive rating post-All-Star break. But Cleveland ranks just 12th in defensive rating for the season, and the Cavaliers are also 20-32 against the spread vs. East opponents. For a team with championship aspirations, that imbalance is hard to ignore. -- Moody
5. Toronto Raptors (46-36)
Round 1 matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.5% NBA title odds: +25000
What to watch for in Round 1:
Toronto was drawing dead against the Knicks, having lost all five games against New York this season, including on Friday night. But thanks to Orlando losing to Boston, the Raptors instead will face Cleveland, which they swept in their three-game season series. It's important to note that all of those games were played before Nov. 25, but securing a series against the Cavs was a significant win for Toronto.
5. Toronto Raptors
One big question for the postseason:
Is Scottie Barnes ready for the spotlight? After his cameo role as a rookie, this is the first chance for Barnes to be the leading man on a playoff team. How will he take on that challenge, and can he lead Toronto to a first-round upset? -- Bontemps
Player who can swing the first round:
Ja'Kobe Walter. Between Halloween and Thanksgiving, the Raptors went 13-1. What happened in that stretch? They played bad teams -- very bad teams. These Raptors do well against bad teams. Against good teams, Brandon Ingram has been bad, Jamal Shead has been worse, Walter has been the worst. One of those guys, probably two, needs to actually show up if the Raptors are going to win a series. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They put a scare into one of the giants. It doesn't seem as if the Raptors are knocking on the door of truly bothering the upper echelon of the East, at least not in the way the NBA world views Atlanta or even the red-hot Hornets. Since Toronto's 12-3 December, it has been a.500 outfit the rest of the way. Making someone sweat in the opening round with a long, rangy defense could put a bow on a season nobody should feel bad about in the North. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The Raptors led the NBA in fast-break points per game (18.8) and allowed the second-fewest (12.6). Their plus-6.2 PPG differential on fast breaks is the best by a team since 2018-19.
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Betting nugget: The Raptors' continuity and ball movement (29.5 APG, 3rd in NBA) combined with a top-five defense (112.2 rating) make them a tougher matchup than expected; they are +425 to win the series. While Toronto's offense is average, its ability to limit runs and play cohesively gives it staying power. Toronto has the profile to extend this series over 5.5 games (-110). The Raptors went 3-0 against the Cavaliers during the regular season. -- Moody
6. Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
Round 1 matchup: New York Knicks BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.4% NBA title odds: +13000
What to watch for in Round 1:
After Jalen Johnson took the controls while Trae Young was injured, the Hawks pivoted and traded Young and Kristaps Porzingis. Following a 20-25 start, Atlanta went 25-10 over the next 35 games, playing and moving the ball the way Quin Snyder wants. Johnson is a star in the making. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been one of the best pickups of the offseason, and he and CJ McCollum provide deep playoff experience, having each reached the Western Conference finals. Jonathan Kuminga hopes to pick up where he left off after averaging 20.8 points for the Warriors in the second round against Minnesota last postseason after Stephen Curry was injured. -- Ohm Youngmisuk
6. Atlanta Hawks
One big question for the postseason:
Can Johnson take his game to the next level? The do-it-all forward emerged this season into an All-Star. Now he returns to the postseason for the first time since 2023, but this time as the Hawks' go-to guy. This will be a priceless experience for the 24-year-old's growth as he tests his triple-double skills against a Knicks defense fixated on him. Johnson got a little taste of facing playoff-tested teams when he shot a combined 12-for-35 and fouled out once in two losses last week to the Knicks and Cavaliers. Things will only get harder from here, but this is the next step for Johnson's ascendence. -- Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Alexander-Walker. Jalen Johnson is the Hawks' top guy, but Alexander-Walker is their second-best player. He has the second-most threshold wins for the Hawks, which is when his performance was enough to carry the team to a win. It's what he doesn't do that is particularly relevant for Atlanta -- perform in the clutch. Johnson has been good, but defenses know that and likely will force someone else, like Alexander-Walker, to beat them. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They pulled off a first-round upset. The Hawks were a sleeper contender pick before the season began, when they still rostered Trae Young. But it wasn't until after trading Young and Kristaps Porzingis that they were able to deploy coach Quin Snyder's full game plan -- Atlanta went 19-5 after the break behind elite shot-making and havoc on defense. It won't be easy or even likely, but given they failed to live up to lofty preseason expectations, a first-round triumph would be a significant next step for the young roster. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The Hawks led the NBA with 30.2 assists per game, the most in a season in franchise history. They generated 79.1 PPG from their assists, a league-best, according to GeniusIQ.
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Betting nugget: Atlanta enters the series red-hot, going 20-6 post-All-Star break while ranking top 10 in 3-point volume and efficiency. The Hawks are also 2-1 ATS against New York this season. With a more fluid offense generating 30.1 assists per game, Atlanta has the profile to outperform expectations and push this deeper than the market (Knicks -290 to win the series) suggests. -- Moody
Eastern Conference play-in
7. Philadelphia 76ers (45-37)
Play-in matchup: Orlando Magic BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1% NBA title odds: +17000
What to watch in the play-in:
A year ago, the 76ers entered the season with championship expectations, only to spectacularly crash and burn. This year, they had almost no expectations, and yet managed to make it into the playoffs, and -- at least in theory -- have the pieces to make a deep playoff run in a wide-open Eastern Conference. -- Bontemps
7. Philadelphia 76ers
One big question for the postseason:
Can Philadelphia stay healthy? For a team that's constantly dealing with one health issue after another, especially with Joel Embiid, any chance of being a factor in the playoffs will come down to whether the 76ers can get their team on the floor. -- Bontemps
Player who can swing the first round:
Tyrese Maxey. Most of the 76ers' team performance is additive. Add Maxey, and they get plus-2.3 net points per game toward winning. Add Paul George, they get plus-1.7. Joel Embiid adds plus-2.1. A team wants to spend all year building up the chemistry across those guys, so it's more than additive. Most of this roster spent all year eating popcorn and watching Maxey cook. He can't carry these guys too far on his own. He's special and fun to watch, but if he gets stopped, the Sixers get stopped. Just adding George and Embiid to Maxey makes them good, but it's essentially Maxey's job to lead the team now, which means ensuring the chemistry makes it more than additive. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
At this point, getting through the play-in would constitute something salvageable for the 76ers. With Joel Embiid's emergency appendectomy putting his postseason status in danger, it's impossible to place real expectations on this team. It's been a year full of fits, starts and glimpses of potential, but it's unfair to expect Maxey to carry this team into the first round by himself. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The 76ers were 11-10 when Embiid, George and Maxey all played this season. Together, they had a plus-1.6 PPG differential.
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Betting nugget: The 76ers are 19-22 without Embiid this season and 2-1 ATS against the Magic, with two of those games going over the total. But there's a case to fade those trends. Philadelphia lacks offensive firepower without Embiid, and Orlando's size in the frontcourt could create matchup problems. Tyrese Maxey is also playing through a finger injury -- Eric Moody
8. Orlando Magic (45-37)
Play-in matchup: Philadelphia 76ers BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.4% NBA title odds: +35000
What to watch in the play-in:
It's been a disappointingly inconsistent season for the Magic, who entered the preseason with huge hopes of contending in the East following the trade for Desmond Bane. But Orlando once again battled injuries, with Franz Wagner missing over half the season. The Magic were supposed to be a defensive juggernaut, but they look disinterested at times this season. Getting Wagner and Anthony Black back has been huge, and Orlando will look to salvage a frustrating season by doing what it was built to do -- win in the postseason. In order to do that, they'll have to win in Philly first. -- Youngmisuk
8. Orlando Magic
One big question for the postseason:
Can Paolo Banchero, Wagner and Bane be the formidable trio the Magic envisioned? The Magic invested three unprotected first-round picks and a first-round pick swap in Bane to provide the perimeter shooting, leadership and postseason experience the Magic desperately need. Orlando did not envision fighting to get out of the play-in. Can the Magic show that Banchero and Wagner can thrive and have room to operate in a playoff environment with Bane on the perimeter to complement an elite defense? Or will Orlando fizzle out, forcing the Magic front office to consider this offseason how to get this East contender back on track? -- Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Wagner. He took about five games to get used to carrying the Magic when Paulo Banchero went down early last season. When he has come back from injury this season, it has also taken him about five games to get right. Wagner really needs to be right if Orlando is going to go anywhere -- besides on a fishing boat with Kenny Smith. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They reach the second round. This is not a team playing with house money. They rightfully identified long-range shot-making as a problem last season, and acquired Desmond Bane for the not-so-low price of four first-round picks. Getting out the play-in, when the expectations were for Orlando to be far clear of it, may not be enough. There's speculation about the future of important people in Orlando, and perhaps only first-round upset can change the fortunes. -- Goodwill
<!-- Stat to know: The Magic have 18 wins in games they trailed by 10 points or more, tied with the Cavaliers for most in the NBA this season.
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Betting nugget: Orlando has been elite in clutch games this season, but that hasn't fully translated to betting value. The Magic are just 1-2 ATS against Philadelphia and 10-10 as a road underdog, which may concern bettors. However, Orlando's size with Wagner, Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. could pose problems for a 76ers team without Embiid. -- Moody
9. Charlotte Hornets (44-38)
Play-in matchup: Miami Heat BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 5.3% NBA title odds: +17000
What to watch in the play-in:
The Hornets enter the play-in as one of the hottest and most dangerous teams. Charlotte was 11-23 on Jan. 2 and then won 32 of the next 45 games. The Hornets have to get out of the play-in in order to snap their nine-year playoff drought - the longest current streak in the NBA. But they'll be looking to make some noise with a group that has grown confident with convincing wins over the Thunder, Celtics, Lakers, Nuggets and Knicks, among other playoff teams. They play fast, are fearless and are determined to change the narrative of this being the same old Hornets team of the past decade. -- Youngmisuk
9. Charlotte Hornets
One big question for the postseason:
Can LaMelo Ball and rookie sensation Kon Knueppel continue to light it up? Postseason basketball is a whole different monster and defenses will be focused on getting physical and taking away all of the Hornets' screen actions that have worked tremendously this season. Ball is having the best season of his career, playing fewer minutes and getting up fewer shots. He wants to prove he can win in the playoffs and will have to play under control, minimize mistakes and turnovers and hold his own defensively. Kon Knueppel will have to figure out how to beat a playoff defense determined to limit the Hornets' 3s. And most importantly, Charlotte's version of the Splash Brothers will have to help the Hornets be much better in clutch time, something they struggled with this season. -- Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Brandon Miller. Miller can have some terrible games and some great games; by metrics, he is the most inconsistent Hornet. Charlotte, facing a high seed in the first round, needs a wild card like Miller, who can scare the favorites into changing their game plan. But the Hornets also likely will want to get ahead and stay ahead. They have the worst clutch record of any potential playoff team. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
It already should be. The Hornets have been a second-half surprise, vaulting themselves from 12 games under.500 to one of the most potent offenses in the NBA in the new year, scoring 120.8 points per 100 possessions post January. But nobody expected them to be in this playoff puzzle, so whatever Ball, Knueppel and Co. accomplish in the postseason is a bonus and a great building block for next season. -- Goodwill
Betting nugget: The Hornets have been one of the hottest and most competitive teams since the All-Star break, ranking second in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating while going 18-9. Charlotte is also 14-7 at home as a favorite this season. Ball's post-All-Star break surge has fueled Charlotte's rise, but whether he can sustain it in the postseason is the real question. He's averaged 23.7 PPG and 9.0 APG in three games against Miami this season. -- Moody
10. Miami Heat (43-39)
Play-in matchup: Charlotte Hornets BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1% NBA title odds: +70000
What to watch in the play-in:
Even with Jimmy Butler III long gone, the Heat have endured a roller coaster season. Miami's offense opened the season looking explosive, only to hover slightly above.500 in late February. They won seven straight and watched Bam Adebayo detonate for 83 points in early March before dropping 10 of the next 13. Miami's defense has sputtered, surrendering 120 or more points 13 times since Mar. 6. -- Youngmisuk
10. Miami Heat
One big question for the postseason:
Can Erik Spoelstra work his postseason magic again? Miami has advanced out of three consecutive play-ins. Despite a maddeningly inconsistent season, the Heat will have the confidence of knowing they can claw their way out of the play-in. But Spoelstra will need a healthy Tyler Herro and Norman Powell to hum from the perimeter with Adebayo doing a little bit of everything and shoring up that Heat defense. And if they do find a way to get out of the play-in, the Heat will be looking to redeem themselves for last year's embarrassing first-round pummeling at the hands of the Cavs. -- Youngmisuk
Player who can swing the first round:
Adebayo. Miami made a farce of its first-round series a year ago, getting swept by the Cavs and losing the last two games by an average of 46 points. For organizational pride, they cannot do that again. The player most in charge of that is Adebayo, who brought a lot of pride with his 83-point game last month. The Heat need him to do something harder than 83 points: make everyone better in order to match the top seed they'll face. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
They advance out of the play-in again. The standard for the Heat franchise, in terms of verbiage, is competing for championships. But they've turned the play-in tournament into the Heat Invitational the last three seasons. Last year they were noncompetitive against the Cavaliers in the first round, getting outscored by a combined 92 points in Games 3 and 4. Securing the 8-seed and giving Detroit a series would be optimal, for the short-term. -- Goodwill
Betting nugget: The Heat won three of four regular-season meetings against the Hornets, with the total going over in three of those games. However, Charlotte is favored at home and ranks third in net rating since the All-Star break, making it a team that shouldn't be overlooked. This is a spot where relying solely on regular-season trends could be misleading. -- Moody
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18)
Round 1 matchup: No. 8 seed BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 61.9% NBA title odds: +110
What to watch for in Round 1:
Regardless of who ends up as the No. 8 seed, the Thunder will be heavy favorites in the first round. Oklahoma City benefited from busting out the brooms in the first round last season, getting eight days in between series after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies. For a team that dealt with so many injuries throughout the season, reducing wear and tear should be a motivating factor for the Thunder. -- Tim MacMahon
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
One big question for the postseason:
Can Jalen Williams perform as the co-star the Thunder need alongside Gilgeous-Alexander?
Williams, whose 40-point performance in Game 5 of the NBA Finals last season ranks as the most important individual outing in franchise playoff history, has endured a frustrating season due to a lengthy recovery from offseason wrist surgery and a recurring hamstring strain. He used the last few weeks of the regular season to try to find a rhythm after returning from an extended absence. -- MacMahon
Player who can swing the first round:
Chet Holmgren. The Thunder bench adds as many net points per game as half the starting units in the league. Two of the starting units it beats are Phoenix and Golden State, so if OKC faces one of those teams, you could say its bench was enough.
If the Thunder face the Clippers, though, they'll need a starter or two. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can rescue them, but in this first round, let's say Holmgren should help carry them. He almost did in last year's first round. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
The Thunder's standard is now incredibly high. They have been the league's best team for a solid 18 straight months. This year, they had several role players solidify their roles and their value, but especially Ajay Mitchell, who averaged career highs across the board as OKC dealt with injuries throughout the season. Because of their depth, they have demonstrated an ability to play a number of different styles, dominate the clutch and rely on numerous players. It's not a championship or break-up-the-core. But it is championship or failure. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The Thunder started strong and finished strong -- started the season 24-1 and finished the season 19-1.
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Betting nugget: The Thunder are strong favorites to repeat as champions, with +120 odds that are very close to even money with the field. For those who want to bet on the Thunder to win, one way to get more juice could be to bet the "Finals Exact Result" market on DraftKings. For example, the Celtics are clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference at +145, well ahead of the Cavaliers (+350) or Pistons (+450). A bet of the Thunder to beat the Celtics in the Finals yields +450 odds on DraftKings, solidly more juice than just Thunder to win (+120). -- Andre Snellings
2. San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
Round 1 matchup: No. 7 seed BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 30.7% NBA title odds: +500
What to watch for in Round 1:
Victor Wembanyama suffered a left rib contusion on Apr. 6, and it's unknown how the injury might affect him against increased physicality in the postseason. While the injury appears to be relatively minor, Wembanyama will likely have to deal with a certain level of pain.
How will that affect his shot and mobility? Opposing teams saw success imposing increased physicality against the 22-year-old Frenchman in the regular season, so the Spurs should expect the same in the first round. -- Michael C. Wright
2. San Antonio Spurs
One big question for the postseason:
Can the inexperienced Spurs control the pace? San Antonio stymied opponents during the regular season with a breakneck pace of play that showcased the club's youth, speed and athleticism. In the postseason, the game slows down and becomes more of a halfcourt slugfest. Can the inexperienced Spurs consistently execute in the halfcourt over 48 minutes in these high-stakes outings? -- Wright
Player who can swing the first round:
Julian Champagnie. Last year, Ty Jerome went into the playoffs for Cleveland after a breakout regular season, then he had a major dud in the second round. For the Spurs, Champagnie has been so good, with and without Wemby on the court, providing a stabilizing presence... something Jerome did for the Cavs last year. I think Champagnie is pretty tough, so I believe he will come through in the first round and make it easy, but I didn't see Jerome's flop coming last year. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
The Spurs are already there. Wembanyama has had a breakout season, and showed how, at 22, he's elevated his two-way game to an MVP level. Stephon Castle, at 21, has already developed into one of the league's best defensive guards; Dylan Harper will be on the All-Rookie team; Keldon Johnson may win Sixth Man of the Year; and Mitch Johnson has demonstrated he's worthy of the coaching job. Sure, you can say they have to win X playoff games or X rounds, but this postseason is a freeroll. They've hit their benchmarks. Expectations will be coming for them in the coming years either way. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The Spurs are on pace to have the fourth-best winning percentage after the All-Star break behind the 2025-26 Thunder, 1996-97 Jazz and 2012-13 Heat (since the first All-Star Game was first played in 1951).
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Betting nugget: The Spurs are +500 to win the NBA Finals, but Wembanyama is +600 to win Finals MVP. If the Spurs are to win the Finals, it's overwhelmingly likely they could only do so behind a heroic effort from Wembanyama. So, for those who want to back the Spurs to win it all, I find more value in betting Wembanyama for Finals MVP than on the team to win. -- Snellings
3. Denver Nuggets (54-28)
Round 1 matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 4.0% NBA title odds: +950
What to watch for in Round 1:
This is a rematch of the Nuggets' seven-game series loss in the 2024 West semifinals, when Denver's usually dominant offense sputtered, scoring under triple digits in all four losses to the Wolves. Jamal Murray, who just had his best regular season yet, can get some retribution for what was arguably his worst playoff series. Murray averaged 18.4 points on 40.3% shooting in those seven games, including 3-of-18 and 4-of-18 outings in a couple of the losses. -- MacMahon
3. Denver Nuggets
One big question for the postseason:
Can Aaron Gordon stay healthy? Gordon, who has dealt with a series of calf and hamstring strains over the last two seasons, isn't just a glue guy. He's the duct tape to Denver's defense. The Nuggets will especially need Gordon to guard Victor Wembanyama if they run into the Spurs. -- MacMahon
Player who can swing the first round:
Gordon. The Nuggets have played only slightly better at home than on the road this season. In Denver, you have to take advantage of the altitude. So who isn't exploiting it? Gordon.
He was Denver's hero in the playoffs a year ago, but he has struggled with injuries and thin air this season, playing 2.1 Net Points per game worse at home than on the road. The Nuggets' first-round series with home court advantage could be very competitive, and they need him to be better. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
The Nuggets could make a case that they could've won each of the last three titles and that winning one of the three was the bare minimum. That said, given the depth and ceilings of the Thunder and Spurs, they will be underdogs to make a deep run this year. So if they make it to a conference finals and have a puncher's chance, they will have at least stolen a series after letting two slip through their fingers. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The Nuggets are the first team in NBA history to have multiple players with at least 1,500 points and 500 assists in the same season (Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray)
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Betting nugget: While the Nuggets are +800 to win the NBA Finals, the fourth-best odds according to DraftKings, Jokic is actually +800 to win Finals MVP. Jokic is an amazing player, arguably the best in the league, but it is overwhelmingly unlikely that he would win Finals MVP if the Nuggets don't win the championship. The only player to win Finals MVP from the losing team was Jerry West way back in the 1969 Finals. With almost 60 years of precedent as support, I find more value in betting the Nuggets to win the Finals than in Jokic to win Finals MVP. -- Snellings
4. Los Angeles Lakers (53-29)
Round 1 matchup: Houston Rockets BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.1% NBA title odds: +25000
What to watch for in Round 1:
The Lakers stabilized to a certain degree to close out the regular season with three straight wins after initially reeling from the Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves injuries. LeBron James shifted back to the No. 1 option; Luke Kennard was asked to be an on-ball initiator; and Marcus Smart returned from his lengthy ankle injury absence. With homecourt advantage secured and five days off before Houston comes to town for Game 1, the Lakers will try to come up with a game plan to take down a Rockets team that won nine out of 10 to finish the season. "We're going to prepare and we're going to fight and we're gonna go try to win the series," Lakers coach JJ Redick said. -- Dave McMenamin
4. Los Angeles Lakers
One big question for the postseason:
Can the Lakers stay alive in the playoffs long enough for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves to return from their respective injuries? The Lakers' late-season momentum came to a screeching halt on April 2 in Oklahoma City when Doncic suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, Reaves suffered a Grade 2 left oblique muscle injury and the Thunder pounded the Lakers by 43. Can LeBron James shift back from the third option and lead L.A. to wins while those guys are on the mend? -- McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
James. A month ago, there was concern about the chemistry across the Lakers' three stars. After a successful month of improved chemistry, two of them got hurt. There are no chemistry issues anymore, are there? Now, James just has to see if all those career-extending devices and tricks have Ultimate Mode. LeBron's four best games of the season had him adding plus-11.0, plus-9.2, plus-8.2, and plus-8.0 Net Points. That's about plus-9 points per game toward winning. Between him, Doncic and Reaves, they added plus-8.5 per game, so the very best of James for four days could get them to the second round. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
Disaster struck in OKC last week. Two of their three best players, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, were injured in the game and are out for weeks. Getting to the second round would be worthy of a celebration -- and might give Doncic and Reaves a chance to return. Short of that, I don't see how the Lakers can feel anything but crushed by the misfortune of the end of the year. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The Lakers are 37-1 when leading a game through three quarters -- best of any team this season.
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Betting nugget: The Lakers are adjusting to life without Doncic and Reaves, while James is also playing through a hand injury. With both sidelined, James returns to a primary playmaking role this roster wasn't built around. Their title odds have dropped to 150-1 to win the NBA championship, and they are big underdogs to win the series against the Rockets (+550). -- Moody
5. Houston Rockets (52-30)
Round 1 matchup: Los Angeles Lakers BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 1.6% NBA title odds: +6000
What to watch for in Round 1:
Houston appeared to overcome some of the issues with chemistry that plagued them at times during the regular season, but what happens once the pressure is ratcheted up a notch in the playoffs? Remember, the Rockets are playing without four high-level contributors (Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green) from last year's squad, and they've spent the majority of the season working out the expected kinks that came with adding a generational player in Kevin Durant. -- Wright
5. Houston Rockets
One big question for the postseason:
Do the Rockets have a closer? The blown leads throughout the regular season were concerning, but those took place because of an inability to consistently generate offense in late-game situations. That's partially a product of point guard VanVleet's absence due to a season-ending injury. Durant, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard and Alperen Sengun have shown improvement, but can they rise to the moment come playoff time? -- Wright
Player who can swing the first round:
Jabari Smith Jr. He has been very average this season at essentially 0.0 Net Points per 48 minutes on both ends of the court. But he was bad against playoff-level teams and bad in the clutch -- and he actually led the league in "threshold losses," games in which the Rockets "would have won" if he hadn't played. We don't really know who the Rockets' leader is, but they need Smith to step up if they want to get out of the first round. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
This team is still very much finding itself. Losers of six of 10 games in mid-March, they responded by winning nine of their final 10, even though they still lack a proven point guard. Winning a series would be a huge step forward for them and they might have a chance against a wounded Lakers team. -- Windhorst
Betting nugget: The Rockets have struggled against weaker competition, with more losses to sub-.500 teams than the Suns, Spurs, Lakers and Thunder. They also lean heavily on Durant, who carries a 28.5% usage rate, making them vulnerable if defenses key in on him. Houston is just 5-9 in games decided by three points or fewer, raising concerns about their ability to close out tight matchups. -- Moody
6. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
Round 1 matchup: Denver Nuggets BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.5% NBA title odds: +9000
What to watch for in Round 1:
After two straight trips to the West finals, the Wolves are not a group brimming with momentum heading into this postseason. They closed out the regular season going 5-5 and finished eighth in defensive rating, a slip from sixth a year ago; they're 13th in offensive rating, when they were eighth last season. Still, they have Anthony Edwards entering his prime after averaging a career-best 28.8 points per game, many of the same pieces from their last couple playoff runs in Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo and Jaden McDaniels, and emerging contributors in Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland. -- McMenamin
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
One big question for the postseason:
How healthy are Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels? Edwards missed 10 out of 11 games from mid-March through early April with a right runner's knee injury, while McDaniels recently missed six straight games with patellar tendinopathy and a bone bruise in his left knee. The Wolves proved by making it to the conference finals as the No. 6 seed last spring that they shouldn't be underestimated as a lower seed -- but that's when they were at full strength. -- McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
Edwards. He is the only Timberwolves player whose net points against playoff-level teams are above zero (plus-3.2 per 48 minutes). Zero means average, and most of them are below it. Edwards, who has dealt with a right knee injury this season, has to raise the play of the teammates around him. For the record, last season's Wolves came from the No. 6 seed to the conference finals, but nearly their entire rotation was positive against playoff-level teams. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
Two of their three best players, Edwards and McDaniels, are going into the playoffs dealing with injuries. Still a dangerous low seed, the concept of Minnesota making a third straight conference finals seems like a long shot. But that's the bar. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The starting lineup of Donte DiVincenzo, Edwards, McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert played 710 minutes together this season -- that's over 150 more minutes than any other lineup in the league.
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Betting nugget: The Timberwolves are long shots to win the Western Conference at +2200, according to DraftKings. But they are the only team in the NBA to have played in each of the last two conference finals. The Timberwolves also have an overall winning record against the top two seeds in the West, with four wins and three losses against the Thunder and the Spurs, making them the rare longshot with such solid justification. -- Snellings
Western Conference play-in
7. Phoenix Suns (45-37)
Play-in matchup: Portland Trail Blazers BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1% NBA title odds: +60000
What to watch in the play-in:
Devin Booker is back in the postseason for the fifth time in the last six years - with his third different coach. Phoenix remade its team with an offseason trade with Houston, sending out Kevin Durant and bringing in Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. They also fired Mike Budenholzer and hired Jordan Ott, who built the Suns into a top-10 defense in his first season as a head coach. Booker is coming off another All-Star season, Brooks had a career year, Collin Gillespie is a Most Improved Player candidate and Grayson Allen was one of the best bench scorers in the league, making Phoenix no slouch as the No. 7 seed. -- McMenamin
7. Phoenix Suns
One big question for the postseason:
Is the Suns' regular-season success against San Antonio an indicator of how competitive the series will be? Phoenix went 2-2 against the Spurs, with one of those losses - a 101-100 defeat on March 19 - coming without Brooks available. And if the Suns can make it a series early on, will San Antonio's playoff inexperience work in Phoenix's favor? -- McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
Brooks. The Suns were 30-19 and sixth in the West on Feb. 1. Brooks was coming off two of the best games of his career, posting plus-8.1 Net Points vs Cleveland and plus-10.2 vs Detroit in wins. Since then, the Suns are 14-17, and Brooks has missed a lot of games -- he fractured his left hand on Feb. 21 and missed more than a month -- and many shots. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
It's already successful, regardless of postseason result. The Suns' preseason projections ranked them 13th in the Western Conference, with win totals in the low-30s. Under new coach Jordan Ott, they have exceeded expectations in almost every way. Their cap and draft pick situation is another conversation. -- Windhorst
Betting nugget: The Suns may be stuck in the Play-in, but the trends favor them. The No. 7 seed has reached the playoffs 100% of the time in the Play-in era and holds an 8-2 record in the opening home game. The Suns are in a strong position historically, but the Play-In format is volatile enough that things can go wrong quickly. -- Moody
8. Portland Trail Blazers (42-40)
Play-in matchup: Phoenix Suns BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1% NBA title odds: +200000
What to watch in the play-in:
The youth. Nobody is expecting a deep run from the Blazers, but even a taste of postseason basketball should have a growth effect for the youngest layer of this evolving roster. Donovan Clingan has been impressive the last few months. How does he respond as the stakes elevate? Can Scoot Henderson finish off what has been a rocky third season on a positive note? Deni Avdija has emerged into a legit go-to scorer for the Blazers, but playoff schemes and defensive focus tend to reveal more about weaknesses in a star's game. The Blazers leveled up this season. They should get more information over the next couple of weeks on how many levels they still have to go. -- Anthony Slater
8. Portland Trail Blazers
One big question for the postseason:
Can their defense translate enough to keep them competitive? The Blazers have the fourth-ranked defense since the All-Star break. Clingan is an improving paint protector. Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday hound on the perimeter. They can hold teams down. Considering they have to win through the play-in just to get a crack at either the Spurs or Thunder -- league-best defenses they will have a challenging time scoring against -- they'll need to succeed on the defensive end to survive. -- Slater
Player who can swing the first round:
Camara. When he puts together his offense with his ability to force turnovers, he is Portland's best player. The problem is that he has done that mostly against bad teams. Most of the rest of the Blazers' primary rotation has been pretty good against playoff-level opponents. Camara needs to be at least decent offensively if they're going to make a dent. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
Already there. The Blazers are assured of at least some postseason play and will get at least one home game, significant progress after four years in the NBA wilderness. With Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe and Clingan, a core in Portland is beginning to take shape. They have a long way to go, but the first steps have been taken. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The Blazers lead the league in second-chance points per game (18.3). That is the second-best by any team since 1996-97 (The 2021-22 Grizzlies averaged 18.7)
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Betting nugget: The Trail Blazers are a strong defensive team this season. In fact, over the last 15 games, Portland has the top defensive rating in the NBA. While Portland and Phoenix have gone over the total in two of three matchups this season, bettors should note that defense typically tightens up in the playoffs. -- Moody
9. LA Clippers (42-40)
Play-in matchup: Golden State Warriors BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1% NBA title odds: +70000
What to watch in the play-in:
After starting 6-21, the Clippers finished 36-19 to complete coach Tyronn Lue's challenge to finish above.500 and qualify for the postseason. They'll host the Golden State Warriors at Intuit Dome, with a chance to play the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round with a win. As difficult as that series promises to be, it might be more difficult for the Clips to see their former player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, suiting up on the other side. -- McMenamin
9. LA Clippers
One big question for the postseason:
After his finest season as a Clipper, what does Kawhi Leonard have in store for the playoffs? The former two-time NBA Finals MVP has only been available for 35 of the 50 postseason games L.A. has played since he left Toronto. With Paul George, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all gone, Leonard is the last man standing from the "Streetlights over Spotlights" era of the Clips. -- McMenamin
Player who can swing the first round:
Leonard. The Clippers have faced an uphill battle since their awful start to the season. There were a number of players who helped get them out of that hole, but Leonard has performed at an All-NBA level.
With an uphill battle in the playoffs and Leonard having one of his best seasons ever, he is poised to lead a pretty good group of veterans into a tough matchup for a top seed. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
It's very unlikely they will reach any designation to make it so. The Clippers have had back-to-back largely healthy seasons from Leonard and, still, might get nothing out of it. Their decision to dump talent at the trade deadline sent the signal across the NBA that they didn't believe in the roster and needed to start a rebuild. All with the shadow of scandal hanging over them. -- Windhorst
Betting nugget: The Clippers (-3.5, 220.5) took the regular-season series 3-1 over the Warriors, including a recent win without Leonard, and have shown matchup success. However, both teams have struggled in the Play-in, with Los Angeles at 0-2 and Golden State 1-3. While Leonard and Curry headline this matchup, the Clippers' edge in prior meetings and overall depth could give them the advantage in this high-variance spot. -- Moody
10. Golden State Warriors (37-45)
Play-in matchup: LA Clippers BPI chance to make the NBA Finals: 0.1% NBA title odds: +80000
What to watch in the play-in:
Kristaps Porzingis, on an expiring $30.7 million contract, represents one of the bigger choices the Warriors' front office needs to make this summer. He brings a tantalizing skill set this team lacks -- a 7-footer who stretches the floor and protects the rim -- but his questionable health and availability make him a risk. They have next to zero data with him next to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. The fit should work in theory, but the Warriors would feel a whole lot more comfortable committing money to Porzingis this summer if they can see a handful of high leverage games where he is healthy enough to give 30-plus minutes and is clicking with their core. -- Slater
10. Golden State Warriors
One big question for the postseason:
Is it actually better for the Warriors to lose in the play-in? If the Warriors survive two road play-in games, their reward will be a first round series with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, waiting after a week of rest and prep. In doing so, they'd be giving up a 9.4% chance at a top-four pick in a loaded draft and, assuming they don't jump up in the lottery, sacrificing the 11th pick for a slight tumble to 15th. The organization will make a real effort to reach the postseason for Curry and the veterans, but it isn't difficult to understand that a quick play-in loss, summer of rest and chance at lottery luck is healthier for the franchise. -- Slater
Player who can swing the first round:
Curry. Let's set this straight -- there is one way for the Warriors to move past the first round that doesn't involve science fiction. That way requires Curry to be the best he can be. He had back-to-back outstanding games in wins over San Antonio back in November, posting plus-14.2 and plus-11.7 Net Points. That's what Curry can still do, and they need it. -- Oliver
They will consider this a successful postseason if...
If Curry gets to play some playoff games. That's the bar this season. He doesn't have that many left, so any additional prime-time games are a bonus to a Hall-of-Fame career. With Jimmy Butler out and a roster filled with holes, the Warriors are not going anywhere meaningful this spring. -- Windhorst
<!-- Stat to know: The Warriors went 24-17 (.585 win %) in games with Stephen Curry this season and 13-25 without him (.342 win %).
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Betting nugget: The Warriors have made the playoffs in three of the last six seasons, highlighted by their 2021-22 championship run. Outside of that title, however, their results have been uneven, with early exits and missed opportunities. Their path is brutal, and while Curry keeps them dangerous, a lack of depth and consistency could be exposed in a playoff series. Golden State is also just 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games against the Clippers. -- Moody
