In the NBA, March and April can be a mirage.
The final few weeks of the regular season feature the best teams preparing for the playoffs, the worst teams tanking, banged-up star players being shut down and plenty of outlier situations unfolding.
The bottom line? Performances and storylines at this point in the season aren't always predictive of the league, its teams and its players' future. (The Malachi Flynn Principle, if you will.)
As a result, one thing coaches, scouts and executives do this time of year is decide whether what they're seeing on the court is real or not. As the 2025-26 regular season enters its final weekend, we asked league insiders which late-season trends will carry over to the playoffs and which could reverse once the stakes become greater.
Can the Lakers win a series without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves?
Brian Windhorst: It is important to understand that both Doncic (hamstring) and Reaves (oblique) were diagnosed with Grade 2 strains. Both players will absolutely try to find a way to come back in time to make an impact on the first round, but these are significant injuries. Who can say how a soft tissue injury will feel two weeks from now, but the Lakers have to operate as if Doncic and Reaves will miss the entire series.
The question becomes: Can the Lakers win four of seven games with 41-year-old LeBron James carrying them against the Houston Rockets, their most likely opponent?
"There's tactical stuff I'm sure [Lakers coach JJ Redick] and his staff are examining, and they're running through lineup ideas," an Eastern Conference scout told ESPN. "But honestly, the Lakers need LeBron to have a hot shooting series and for the Rockets to have a cold shooting series. That's possible, and when LeBron gets his 3-pointer going, it opens up the entire game."
"They need Marcus Smart to be healthy," a Western Conference scout said. "He's an important point-of-attack defender for them. They can't afford to lose another starter, and he's been out."
Tim Bontemps: The unfortunate irony is that James, Doncic and Reaves had finally gotten themselves going -- in large part because James bought into a "third star" role.
"Someone always has to sacrifice in that role," an East executive said. "In the past, that's been Chris Bosh or Kevin Love. This time, it was him."
Now, the Lakers will lean on James to carry lineups that are virtually devoid of ballhandling and shot creation. You can construct a world where the Lakers can do that -- James gets hot, the Lakers' role players hit shots and Houston struggles in the clutch -- but that's also ignoring the clear talent gap between the two sides with Doncic and Reaves out.